Abstract for: Will AstroForge Collapse the PGM Market?

As commercial entities like AstroForge move toward extracting Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) from Near-Earth Objects, a critical economic question arises: Will the sudden influx of virtually limitless, high-grade space resources cause the PGM market to collapse? This paper addresses this question using a non-steady system dynamics model to simulate the transition from terrestrial to off-world PGM supply. We answer the question at three levels: (1) a heuristic argument based on causal loop diagram, (2) a back-of-the envelope numeric example, and (2) a non-steady dynamic simulation. Our analysis reveals that while a market "collapse"—defined as a decoupling of price from terrestrial mining costs—is inevitable, it is not immediate. We identify a two-phase market evolution: a "Gold Rush" phase, and an "Equilibrium Shift" phase. The strategic takeaway is clear: the window for outsized "trillion-dollar" profits is finite. The key to the PGM "gold rush" is to be an early mover to capitalize on terrestrially-anchored prices before the market corrects for the coming era of asteroid-sourced abundance.