Abstract for: Expert Participatory Modelling of City System to Explain Misguided Policy Decisions

Systemic breakdowns are constantly observed in cities, i.e., decisions made by authorities that do not solve problems but rather generate new ones. The most media-covered examples include gentrification, suburbanisation, “White Elephants”, etc. The reason for this is a lack of knowledge about the system, especially about key feedback loops and leverage points. There are many interrelationships in the urban system that are overlooked by local decision-makers. Qualitative mapping and elements of exploratory group model building were used to explore the city system. Expert knowledge elicitation through participatory modelling of the city system was conducted with experts from four areas: local government, academia, NGOs, and business. The experts built maps of the city system, focusing on feedback loops and identifying leverage points that they considered critical for urban policies and their effects. In a very limited time available for modelling, nine feedback loops and four key intervention pathways were identified. The most important points of application are the need to change the electoral system for municipal authorities, cooperation and interdependence, flexibility and adaptability, and education about the city. This modelling shows how important it is to discuss the system among the various stakeholders. Modelling the system would greatly help reduce the scale of unattended relations, thereby avoiding inappropriate decisions regarding strategic and operational activities in the city. Next, it would be valuable to build an operational tool for such modelling to make it a regular practice in cities.