Abstract for: Coupling Techno-Economic Optimization and Socio-Technical System Dynamics: A Work in Progress on Modeling Decentralized Energy Transitions

Techno-economic energy system models are widely used to identify cost-optimal technology configurations but typically assume social adaptation and fully rational decision-making. This simplification contributes to persistent discrepancies between modeled optima and observed transition pathways, particularly in decentralized residential energy systems. This work-in-progress proposes a methodological framework that couples techno-economic optimization with socio-technical diffusion modeling to capture behavioral feedbacks in energy system transitions. A sequential soft-linking approach connects an optimization model with a System Dynamics diffusion model representing social norms, peer effects, economic valuation, and technical capabilities. The optimization model first determines a techno-economic optimum, whose outputs parameterize the diffusion model; simulated adoption dynamics are then fed back as socially informed constraints in a second optimization run. Initial experiments indicate significant deviations between techno-economic and socio-technical outcomes, especially during early transition phases. The framework demonstrates how behavioral dynamics can endogenously reshape optimization results while preserving model transparency and computational tractability, offering a practical pathway for integrating socio-technical insights into quantitative energy system analysis. Grammar Check