Abstract for: The End of Population Growth: The System Dynamics view

The growth of the human population has been a constant for all recorded history. Today, there is evidence that we are reaching a momentous turning point which will see population starting a long term decline. System dynamics can be used to model future trends and tell us what we can expect. This study starts from simple "mind sized" SD models designed to explicit the interaction of population growth with other economic and environmental factors. Then it examines the story of the SD population modeling from the early "Limits to Growth," 1972 study to the results of current models SD models indicate that the turning point of the human population curve may be close and occur within the next 1-2 decades. The decline may be rapid according to the concept of the "Seneca Effect" This study is not meant to criticize the existing demographic projections, but to complement them with an approach that includes factors not normally considered, such as climate change, chemical pollution, ecosystemic disruption, and others. The future cannot be predicted by models, but models can be useful to be prepared for it.