Abstract for: From accelerating growth to biophysical brakes: The processes that shape the future of the global human & Earth System

This study examines how long‑term futures of the global human & Earth system emerge from interactions between socio‑economic dynamics and biophysical climate processes. Using FRIDAv2.1, a fully coupled integrated assessment model, the study maps how feedback loops shape development, emissions, and climate impacts across the model's baseline scenario. It highlights the growing importance of biophysical constraints that increasingly govern economic and societal trajectories over the next century. The study applies the Loops That Matter method to identify dominant feedback processes across 11 representative simulations that span FRIDA's baseline scenario ensemble’s temperature distribution. Combining LTM with AI‑assisted narrative synthesis, the study traces how feedback loop dominance evolves over time. This approach reveals when and why shifts in system behavior occur, linking model outcomes to specific feedback structures. The behavior from the simulation start to today is dominated by reinforcing macroeconomic loops that drive economic growth and entrench fossil‑fuel dependence. As warming increases, biophysical feedbacks i.e. climate damages to productivity, finance, food systems, and mortality, become dominant, constraining investment and slowing economic growth. Across all runs, financial instability amplifies downturns, while technological and behavioral changes occur too late to prevent a transition into climate‑impact‑dominated dynamics. This study shows a structural inversion from economically driven feedbacks to climate‑damage‑driven ones, emphasizing that long-term outcomes hinge on cross-cutting feedbacks rather than single sectors. The financial system adapts to climate stress but in destabilizing ways, and societal responses lag behind biophysical pressures. The findings suggest that intervention is unavoidable—either anticipatory and deliberate or reactive and damage‑driven, highlighting key leverage points for policy. As part of the analysis