Abstract for: Applying Systems Thinking to Understand the Nutrition Transition in Kenya

Kenya is undergoing a nutrition transition, a shift from traditional diets rooted in minimally processed staples toward greater consumption of foods high in added sugars, unhealthy fats, and refined carbohydrates. This is resulting in a double burden of malnutrition: the coexistence of undernutrition and overnutrition-related diseases such as obesity and diabetes. The drivers and future consequences of this transition are not fully understood, and cross-sector coordination and collaboration are needed to address this. This was framed as a coordination problem. Multiple group model building sessions were carried out with relevant local stakeholders (Kisumu, Kenya) to explore feedback loops, reinforcing and balancing mechanisms, and unintended consequences shaping Kenya’s nutrition transition. We collectively developed a causal loop diagram depicting the drivers and consequences of Kenya's Nutrition Transition, with a focus on Kisumu city. Three main domains were identified: commercial determinants, agricultural dimension, and a socio-cultural domain. Leverage points were also identified and stakeholders took shared insights into their local practices. A conflict between the modernising aspirations of Kenyans and traditional food acquisition/consumption became self-evident. The nutrition transition should be curved through education: local school programmes, transmission of cooking skills, promotion of urban kitchen gardens. Surprisingly, the role of central government overarching policies was deemed not impactful. A SD model seems unfeasible unless the problem is narrowed down further, but there are concerns about data availability.