Abstract for: Modeling and Analysis of Seasonal Flu (H3N2) Dynamics in Türkiye

Seasonal flu causes morbidity and mortality issues affecting all parts of the world. Understanding the transmission dynamics of the disease is crucial for implementing effective public health measures. This study aims to gain insights on the transmission dynamics of the influenza type H3N2 in Türkiye by using an age stratified compartmental SEIR model. Upon the verification and the validation of the model using the surveillance data from Türkiye, the effects of different scenarios which can be achieved by implementing different public health policies like increased vaccination rates, adoption of healthy behaviors like physical distancing, mask use, hand hygiene, and increased isolation of symptomatic school age children on the key variables of disease burden such as infections, hospitalizations, and deaths are analyzed. Experiments with different scenarios show the intricate relationship between the age groups and that a healthy behavior adopted by an age group often also significantly benefits the other groups.