Abstract for: The Aftershock: Projecting the Impact of NIH Funding Reductions on Research and Innovation

In 2025, a proposed 40% cut to the U.S. National Institutes of Health budget raised urgent concerns about its long-term effects on biomedical research, the workforce, and innovation. To assess the potential impact, we developed a dynamic simulation model using parameter values from the literature and estimation utilizing 32 time series spanning 1995-2024. Data sources included budget documents, surveys of doctorate recipients, grant and publication tracks, federal records on clinical trials, and drug approvals, which served as proxies for research activity and innovation. We modeled three funding scenarios: flat funding at the 2025 level through 2050, a 40% reduction sustained, and restoration to pre-cut levels after four years. Preliminary results show that the cut triggers lasting declines in the academic workforce, fundamental research, and clinical trials. Even when funding is later restored, key outcomes remain below baseline. Commercial innovation slows and does not recover by 2050 unless funding increases well beyond historical levels. Even with a tripling of funding in 2029, innovation still takes more than 12 years to return to the baseline. These findings suggest that even temporary NIH budget cuts can cause long-term harm, emphasizing the need for sustained public investment in science.