Abstract for: Opioid Overdose Crisis in the United States

Since the 1990s, the U.S. has faced a growing opioid addiction crisis due to aggressive pharmaceutical marketing and overprescription. In recent years, the rise of synthetic opioids like fentanyl has worsened the situation. Over 6 million people are currently addicted, with projections reaching 15 million by 2054 if no action is taken. This study explores the systemic roots of this public health emergency. Using system dynamics, this work applies the “Shifting the Burden” archetype to model the opioid crisis. A causal loop diagram and stock & flow model were developed, integrating time delays, reinforcing loops, and government responses. The model was simulated using AnyLogic, with a 30-year horizon and focus on structural and policy leverage points to reduce addiction rates. The analysis revealed that the opioid crisis in the U.S. is sustained by reinforcing feedback loops and delayed responses. Without addressing the root causes, short-term policies tend to provide temporary relief while exacerbating long-term challenges. The use of systemic tools helped identify key leverage points and potential strategies that could redirect the trajectory of the crisis toward recovery and resilience. The analysis emphasizes that addressing public crises like opioid addiction requires more than reactive solutions. System dynamics tools help uncover feedback structures and delays that perpetuate the problem. By shifting focus toward high-leverage policies, decision-makers can promote long-term, structural change. The work demonstrates how modeling can support better-informed policy design in complex public health issues.