Abstract for: Policy design for emerging space economies: the case of Brazil in the new space era

The New Space paradigm has disrupted traditional state-led space governance in emerging economies. In Brazil, institutional fragmentation, limited strategic coordination, and weak policy tools hinder the integration of private and military initiatives. These gaps reduce the country’s ability to leverage New Space for national development, demanding a systemic analysis of governance structures and stakeholder interactions. This study adopts a systemic intervention approach combining semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders from civil, military, academic, and industrial sectors. Insights were analyzed using stakeholder mapping and causal loop diagrams to capture governance feedback dynamics. The approach informs future System Dynamics modeling to test policy scenarios and institutional reforms aimed at improving Brazil’s adaptive capacity in the New Space context. Preliminary findings reveal institutional asymmetries and governance fragmentation. The Brazilian Space Agency’s limited autonomy constrains its strategic role, while public investment remains the main driver of private sector development. Causal loop diagrams show reinforcing dependencies on public funding and highlight barriers to military-civilian integration. These findings indicate structural weaknesses that require targeted policy and institutional interventions. The study highlights the need for systemic governance reforms to enable Brazil to respond effectively to New Space dynamics. Future work will apply System Dynamics modeling to simulate potential reforms and policy scenarios. The findings are relevant to other emerging space economies seeking to strengthen governance in an increasingly commercial and militarized space sector. AI was used to assist in editing and structuring this abstract.