Abstract for: Feedback mechanisms of electricity demand in Kenya's informal settlements

To meet essential energy needs, communities in informal settlements must be able to rely on cheap and effective access to electricity. The national utility supplier Kenya Power wishes to increase adoption of formal supply, but tensions remain high with informal suppliers (commonly called cartels) who provide a flexible and affordable service tailored to the needs of informal settlements. The study is funded under the Climate Compatible Growth programme (CCG). Thanks to document analyses, literature reviews, and expert knowledge elicitations in partnership with Nuvoni Research, we use CLDs to present four feedback mechanisms entrenching the situation. An interplay of forces and socio-technical dynamics tell a story of marginalisation, unintended policy consequences, safety risks, and strong community ties. Marginalisation issues are often deepened by top-down interventions involving punitive policies creating gaps in energy access, creating more demand for informal supply while antagonising further community members. Similarly, the exclusion of informal settlements from national energy planning processes reinforces a lack of contextual understanding and decrease the ability to design implementable policies. While the unintended consequences created by external interventions are clear, the situation is also further entrenched by instances of corruption and by the important social capital enjoyed by informal suppliers, which lessens negative perceptions about the safety risks and need for adaptive strategies related to informal supply.