Abstract for: Profitability Potential of Non-Autonomous and Autonomous Ride-Hailing Services for Asset-Light and Asset-Heavy Business Models

The ride-hailing industry has grown significantly, yet many providers still struggle with sustainable profitability. Key levers for long-term success include autonomous (AV) services and service portfolio optimization. However, the impact of these levers depends strongly on the business model type (asset-light vs. asset-heavy). While previous research has explored the role of business model types, it has largely overlooked how the combination of service portfolio design and business model affects profitability. This study analyzes the profitability potential of non-autonomous and autonomous ride-hailing services (Basic, Premium, Green, AV Basic, AV Premium), focusing on differences between asset-light Multi-Sided Platform Providers (MSPPs) and asset-heavy One-Sided Platform Providers (OSPPs). The research questions are addressed through a System Dynamics model that incorporates customer and driver pref-erences, as well as cost and price structures. The model is applied to London and San Francisco Preliminary results suggest that AV services offer substantial profit potential for OSPPs due to signifi-cant cost savings. In contrast, the profitability of AV services for MSPPs remains limited and highly dependent on the ability to increase commission rates. Without such adjustments, lower AV fares could even reduce overall profit margins. The preliminary findings highlight the potential of AV services and service portfolio design for improving profitability, but also make clear that service option and business model type must be considered in combination when designing profitable ride-hailing strategies. The model helps to better understand which combinations are most promising for achieving long-term profitability under different structural conditions. proof-reading, improve writing