Abstract for: A Systems-Based Analysis of Energy Balance Dynamics in Obesity: Modeling Adaptive Behaviors

Obesity is a critical public health issue worldwide, substantially increasing the risk of cardiometabolic diseases such as coronary heart disease, dyslipidemia, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and certain types of cancers. Central to obesity development are energy balance (EB) systems, which govern energy intake and expenditure. A comprehensive understanding of EB systems is essential for addressing obesity effectively at both individual and population levels. In this study, we develop a quantitative SD model of EB dynamics to simulate multiple reference modes—patterns of body weight change over time under different scenarios. Our hypothesis proposes that energy metabolism is a complex adaptive system aimed at aligning food intake with current energy and protein needs while safeguarding lean tissue mass and supporting essential metabolic activities. To test this hypothesis, we applied Hall et al.’s model of human metabolism and body-weight change to capture the dynamics of weight gain and loss. Using the developed SD model, we will generate distinct reference modes reflecting known body weight trajectories under various scenarios. The resulting behaviors will then be analyzed to provide insights regarding our stated hypothesis: that energy metabolism is a complex adaptive system aimed at aligning food intake with current energy and protein needs while safeguarding lean tissue mass and supporting essential metabolic activities.