Abstract for: Crossing the Rubicon of Complexity Sciences:An Age-Spanning Dialectic from Ibn Khaldun to Fourier and Synthesis of Cliodynamics

This paper explores cyclical theories of societal change by merging classical insights from a vast existing body of historical and sociological knowledge with a SD perspective. It examines how traditional narratives of civilizational rise and fall can be reinterpreted as feedback structures and dynamic interactions while acknowledging the limits of applying a systems framework to the multifaceted nature of historical processes. The study employs a conceptual synthesis of historical sociology, complexity science, and systems thinking. It critically reviews classical and modern theories to identify feedback mechanisms in social unfoldment and create mental models by qualitative mapping. The analysis constructs a structured narrative by illustrating the explanatory potential and the constraints of using SD tools and concepts in interpreting historical dynamics by acknowledging that the framework cannot capture every nuance of historical complexity. The analysis yields a novel framework that maps key feedback loops and cyclic patterns in historical narratives. It shows that SD tools can help us better understand our world and the civilizational dynamics without falling into the pitfall of making prophecies. Cliodynamics will be introduced in integration with SD as a framework that provides a nuanced perspective on the utility of systems thinking in historical studies while delineating its conceptual boundaries. Applying SD can enrich historical discourse by highlighting underlying societal dynamics and helping everyone have a mental model of the dynamics of our world and the approximate potential trajectories that our actions can lead to. This work invites further explorations and improving methods to extract and refine variables and links, determine their types, translate concepts into system elements, prevent duplications, quantify relations and variables, and validate models and simulations.