Abstract for: Exploring environmental rebound effects in U.S. fluid milk supply chains

U.S. dairy production systems require significant resource inputs to meet demand. Improvements in production efficiency over the last 50 years dramatically reduced greenhouse gas emissions intensity, but absolute emissions increased 14%. Increases in absolute emissions were driven by increased manure methane emissions driven by increased consolidation and liquid manure management. This dynamic is reflective of an environmental rebound effect. A U.S. dairy supply chain model to explore drivers of and high-leverage potential solutions to environmental rebound effects is in development. This early version of the model includes herd population dynamics and economic feedbacks from consumption back to producer decision making about herd expansion/contraction. The model is parameterized with historical animal populations, greenhouse gas emission intensities and consumption patterns over time to define the reference mode. Data were obtained from USDA, EPA, and FAO. This model replicates herd dynamics and mimics the oscillating behavior of milk inventory stocks. It will be expanded by including more explicit feedback loops including economic dynamics between milk market prices and producer cost of production.