Abstract for: System Archetypes in Community Solar Mini-grid Operations: An Outcome of Participatory System Dynamics Modeling

Community solar mini-grids face operational sustainability challenges best addressed through systems thinking. Using participatory system dynamics modeling, researchers identified three system archetypes: "limits to growth" (infrastructure constraints), "shifting the burden" (over-reliance on subsidies), and "tragedy of the commons" (resource mismanagement). The study proposes targeted leverage points to enhance the long-term sustainability of decentralized energy systems. This study examined 14 solar mini-grid villages in Maharashtra, India through 18 user interactions (meetings/conversations). Prompts focused on appliance usage, demand projections, supply reliability (seasonal impacts, faults), and billing mechanisms. Verbatim transcripts were qualitatively coded to develop causal loop diagrams, revealing systemic dynamics between energy access, community practices, and mini-grid operations. The methodology captures localised operational challenges and user experiences. The systems approach applied to community mini-grid operations through PSDM modeling reveals three key system archetypes and their leverage points. "Limits to Growth" arises from capacity constraints in meeting electricity demand and community income limitations. "Shifting the burden" highlights weakened regulatory structures. "Tragedy of the commons" is due to the uncontrolled use of resources by individuals. The relevant leverage points are identified and discussed. The paper has two objectives: a) to highlight a few dynamic hypotheses in community solar mini-grid operations and b) to recognise system archetypes in community solar mini-grid operations and suggest possible leverage points. Future steps involve simulating interventions through stock-flow analysis, developing sustainability frameworks, and expanding research to diverse business models (e.g., non-solar or non-community systems).