Abstract for: A Modeling Framework for the Epidemiological Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease Control Strategies Applied to Cattle Systems

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly contagious transboundary disease that severely impacts livestock production, leading to substantial economic losses and threatening the sustainability of dairy farming across the globe, especially in India, the largest cattle population. Designing proactive disease control requires a comprehensive understanding of transmission dynamics and the influence of key epidemiological parameters. A compartmental model with capability to simulate both Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Carrier (SEIRC) frameworks were developed to represent disease progression in a hypothetical population of susceptible dairy cattle. Key epidemiological parameters, including the basic reproduction number (R0), duration of infectivity, immunization coverage, carrier status, and movement restrictions, were identified through a systematic review of FMD epidemics reported across the globe for the past 25 years. The key epidemiological parameters sourced were incorporated into a causal loop diagram to map their interdependencies. A stock-and-flow model was subsequently developed, with appropriate mathematical equations assigned to all variables, enabling dynamic simulations of disease spread. The findings highlight the effectiveness of system dynamics modeling in analyzing FMD transmission and optimizing control strategies. By providing a data-driven framework for evaluating intervention measures, this study underscores the critical role of vaccination programs in mitigating disease spread.