Abstract for: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics in the Hajj Mass Gathering: Assessing Strategies to Minimize Health Risks

Authorities face unique challenges when dealing with potential disease outbreaks in mass gatherings. Despite extensive research on modeling infectious disease spread in various settings, few of these studies have focused on mass gatherings in general and global gatherings in particular. This study employed a modified SEIR model to simulate the spread of infectious diseases during a mass gathering. The modification accounts for denser clustering and frequent interactions, leading to higher contact and infection rates. By simulating COVID-19 scenarios during Hajj, the model provides insights into the effectiveness of public health interventions tailored to such events, such as controlling visitor numbers, vaccination requirements, and mask mandates, helping authorities manage risks and enhance disease control strategies. Among the three interventions, absence of vaccination had the most pronounced effect on rates of sickness and death.The scenario modeling the absence of all three interventions painted a stark picture of a global health crisis. Notably, the “no intervention” scenario showed a substantial surge in cases of sickness and death, surpassing the sum of cases from other three scenarios that assessed the absence of one intervention. This underscored collective impact of these interventions, outweighing the individual contributions of each. Controls on attendee numbers, vaccination campaigns, and consistent use of masks are crucial strategies to impede the spread of infections in mass gatherings.The study advocates for a comprehensive approach that integrates these interventions, emphasizing the need for dynamic, adaptable policy frameworks to keep pace with the changing landscape of epidemiology.As global community anticipates future pandemics, the knowledge acquired from this study could be used to formulate more effective strategies to maintain global health security during mass gatherings.