Abstract for: Modeling of Silvicultural Treatments: Impacts on Oak Regeneration and Carbon Sequestration

Uplаnd hardwood forests(UHFs) charаcterized by oаk-hickory and pine-mixed-hаrdwoods are environmentally, culturаlly and commercially significаnt and require successful regeneration of oаks to maintаin biodiversity and ecosystem functions. However, these forests fаce major challenges in oаk recruitment due to historical fire suppression, land-use chаnges, increased competition from shаde-tolerant species and deer browsing. This study applies modeling approach to evaluate silvicultural treatments' long-term impacts on oak regeneration and carbon storage in Mississippi UHFs. We used STELLA to estimate moderate and intensive thinning treatments (30% and 50% reduction in basal area respectively) implemented after 5 years, and their effects on oak recruitment and carbon storage. Growth, mortality, recruitment, light availability, and carbon dynamics over 20years are ecological processes simulated. We used empirical data from UHFs to calibrate the model and assessed model robustness via sensitivity analyses, excluding stochastic disturbances like pests or extreme weather. Moderate thinning improved trade-offs, enhanced oak recruitment by ~15% compared to control, whereas recovering carbon storage within 10years. Intensive thinning increased recruitment (~30% above control), with substantial short-term carbon loss (~25%), and delayed recovery until year 15. Control preserved carbon-stocks and showed minimal oak recruitment due to limited light. Sensitivity analysis across three growth/mortality scenarios confirmed model robustness; and revealed consistent treatment response pattern under varying ecological conditions. This research estimated trade-off between oak recruitment and carbon sequestration in different silvicultural treatments. Moderate thinning serves as a viable strategy, effectively balancing carbon sequestration with tree growth. Our findings support ecological forestry principles, highlighting the significance of adaptive management in preserving forest resilience and carbon stocks. This study is constrained by focusing exclusively on above-ground carbon, not modeling for potential prescribed fire impacts and the lack of recurring treatments or treatment emissions. The author acknowledged the use of AI-powered writing assistant to enhance vocabulary and grammar