Abstract for: Developing a Systems Dynamics Model of State Repression

Human rights groups are severely resource constrained, and seek to be as efficient as possible when crafting strategy. Current models do not make it easy to identify where they should target their efforts to be maximally effective. This project develops a systems model of state repression which can be used to identify leverage points and model expected system responses to proposed interventions. It identifies system elements through literature review, employs a combination of statistical and machine learning techniques for model estimation, and uses out-of-sample testing to evaluate model accuracy and precision. This project will make theoretical, empirical and policy-relevant contributions. In addition to generating new theories about causal relationships and expected outcomes, it will also identify new opportunities for empirical measurement of repression- and systems-related sociopolitical phenomena. It provides a new framework for deriving specific analyses and predictions about particular cases, and a method for simulating strategic interventions and evaluating model outputs. This has great implications for policymaking and strategy design.