Abstract for: A Bird’s-Eye View: Modelling Socio-Metabolic Resilience in the UK Poultry Sector

As a source of cheap, nutritious, and widely available protein, the poultry industry supplies half of the UK’s meat demand. Given its critical role in the national diet, the sector is vulnerable to shocks such as trade disruptions, extreme weather, and pandemics, alongside public concerns over animal welfare and farm waste. This study explores these vulnerabilities, offering insights into how systemic challenges impact industry resilience and sustainability. This study employs System Dynamics modelling (SDM) to assess the resilience of the UK poultry industry. Using a data-driven approach, it examines socio-metabolic relations in the poultry meat sector, evaluating the benefits and harms to the communities of humans, animals and microbes, and the environment under both normal operations and disruption scenarios. The model identifies key feedback loops and policy levers to enhance sustainability and adaptive capacity. Food system security and resilience remain underexplored in System Dynamics literature. Policymakers and scholars increasingly advocate for systemic approaches to address the poultry sector’s social, health, and environmental challenges while enhancing food security. This study contributes a comprehensive SD model of the poultry industry and a broader framework for understanding socio-metabolic resilience in agri-food systems, informing policies for a more resilient, sustainable and equitable food future.