Abstract for: Modeling the Future of Ghana's Cocoa Sector: Tradeoffs Between Export Dependence, Processing, and Sustainability

The cocoa supply chain in Ghana, a critical component of the global cocoa economy, faces multifaceted challenges that threaten both smallholder farmer livelihoods and the sustainability of cocoa production. Global market pressures and climate-induced uncertainties exacerbate smallholders' precarious situation, identifying critical feedback loops and leverage points that may reveal how interconnected system components shape outcomes at multiple scales. Through this conceptual model, we aim to elucidate pathways toward enhanced resilience, sustainability, and equitable value distribution within Ghana's cocoa sector. Our analysis highlights several important reinforcing and balancing loops that shape the future trajectory of Ghana's cocoa industry: The Export vs. Local Processing Tradeoff Loop (Balancing). The Local Processing Growth Loop (Reinforcing). Price Volatility & Export Dependence Loop (Reinforcing). Sustainability Challenges & The Cocoa Monoculture Loop (Reinforcing). Aging Farmer Population & Labor Constraints Loop (Coming up!) The next research phase will involve developing a formal simulation model to test policy interventions and long-term industry trajectories quantitatively. The model will expand upon the causal structures identified in this paper and incorporate empirical data on cocoa production, price fluctuations, investment trends, and climate impacts.