Abstract for: Understanding Current and Future Nitrogen Dynamics in a Canadian Agricultural Watershed

Human activities pollute rivers and lakes with nutrients such as nitrogen. In this study we examine the counterintuitive water quality and nitrogen trends of a waterbody located in an agricultural region of Quebec. Understanding the complex physical and socioeconomic processes that control nitrogen pollution in the area is required in order to protect this waterbody and the communities that rely upon it. A casual loop diagram describing the causes, consequences, and feedbacks of nitrogen pollution will be developed using available literature and consultation with local experts. This system diagram will be quantified into a simulation model where scenarios revolving around land use and climate change will be applied to determine future nitrogen trends and test potential pollution solutions. Development of this system dynamics model will improve understandings of regional nitrogen dynamics, which are currently lacking. Using the model, stakeholders and policy decision makers in the area will be able to examine the potential outcomes of their proposed strategies and select solutions that are effective against nutrient pollution in the long-term. This model also has the potential of being adapted to other watersheds facing similar issues.