Abstract for: Transitioning to Electric Buses: Challenges and Implications for Sao Paulo

This study investigates the long-term impacts of introducing electric buses into São Paulo’s public transport system, using the System Dynamics approach. The research is grounded in Municipal Law 16.802/2018, which establishes progressive goals for re-ducing CO2, NOx, and particulate matter (MP) emissions from the city’s urban bus fleet. The simulation model considers the gradual transition from a diesel to an electric bus fleet, evaluating variables such as charging infrastructure, operational and financial costs, and emission trends over time. The results demonstrate that, in the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the city will not meet the environmental goals within the deadlines set by the legislation. Three alternative scenarios were simulated, featuring subsidies of 20%, 40%, and 60% for electric bus acquisition and charging infrastructure expansion. While the subsidies accelerate fleet electrification and reduce emissions and operational costs in the long term, even the highest incentive level (60%) is insufficient to fully eliminate CO2 emissions by 2050. IA used for English Language editing