Abstract for: Exploring the dynamic interactions between heavy electric truck adoption and electricity supply and pricing

The transportation sector is rapidly transitioning towards electrification to reduce emission. Battery electric heavy trucks are expected to play a significant role in decarbonizing freight transport. However, the electrification of heavy road freight transport is dependent on the electricity supply system, which itself is undergoing a complex transition to low-carbon energy. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 requires a holistic approach that considers the interdependencies between transport and electricity systems. 2. Methodological Process Figure 1 illustrates the methodological process of this research. So far, we have conducted literature reviews and 13 expert interviews with professionals working at the intersection of road freight transport and electricity systems. Currently, we are in the process of developing the stock and flow diagram and collecting relevant data to support model calibration and analysis. We are still in the modelling phase and cannot present any concrete results at this stage. However, preliminary findings suggest that electric truck adoption has minimal impact on electricity prices, even under extreme charging profiles. The growth rate of electricity capacity demand from other sectors (excluding electric trucks) could, however, influence electricity prices and, in turn, the adoption of electric trucks. As noted by many experts in interviews, the availability and expansion of grid infrastructure may serve as a bottleneck for widespread e-truck adoption. Future research will focus on addressing this challenge by incorporating the temporal and spatial dimensions of grid capacity into the SD modelling framework, ensuring a more comprehensive understanding of power system constraints and investment requirements.