Abstract for: Modelling the systemic impact of health system innovation: Community Hospital of the Future in Singapore

Community Hospitals (CHs) serve to reduce stress on Acute Hospitals (AHs) by providing rehabilitative and subacute inpatient services in a more appropriate setting. Community Hospital of the Future (CHoF) is a project that seeks to enhance the effectiveness of the CH model in Singapore. In this context, the study team is developing a model to assess the long-term effect of CHoF on CH use in Singapore. The study team is close to completing the system mapping stage. A Causal Loop Diagram is being collaboratively finalised, while a formulation of the quantitative model is at an early stage. Vensim (DSS version 10.2.2) and Python 3.12.9 are used for this work. Our CLD reflects the mental models of CHoF project personnel, and a wider CH Community of Practice (COP) which includes medical directors, clinicians, nurses, and Allied Health Professionals (AHPs). It explains the leverage points through which CHoF can enhance CH use. The study team has developed a preliminary that contains the main outcome variables of interest. This model has helped to generate the first set of data requirements. The CHoF system modelling project is an applied project with insights for policy makers, health service providers, as well as researchers. Feedback from the system dynamics community will enrich these insights.