Abstract for: Qualitative Modeling of Economic and Biological Factors Influencing Profitability in Cow-Calf Operations in United States

The economic sustainability of cow-calf operations significantly impacts the entire beef value chain in United States, where operations face challenges due to volatile market conditions and climatic uncertainties. Small-scale farms dominate this sector, making it crucial to understand how factors such as feed costs, market fluctuations, and disease outbreaks influence profitability. A qualitative System Dynamics approach was used to create a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) using Vensim 10.2.1. The model integrates key variables such as herd growth, feed costs, market prices, and disease risks. Group Model Building informed model construction, ensuring comprehensive stakeholder perspectives, with forecasts enhanced through predictive analytics via machine learning techniques. The developed CLD highlights reinforcing loops driving herd expansion via profitability and genetic improvement, and balancing loops regulating growth through feed expenses, market dynamics, and disease risks. Notably, increased feed costs reduce profitability and herd size, whereas improved market prices and genetic productivity foster herd expansion, demonstrating intricate systemic interdependencies. The study underscores the complexity of managing cow-calf profitability under market volatility and climatic uncertainties. Proactive strategies, such as genetic improvements and disease management, are critical for stabilizing production. The dynamic modeling framework facilitates strategic decisions by illustrating how economic, biological, and environmental factors interact, enabling producers to mitigate risks and optimize sustainability.