Abstract for: Advancing Urban Models for Impact

Cities are essential drivers of human progress, yet face uniquely complex challenges. Policy decisions spanning zoning, taxation, transportation, and education profoundly shape social and economic outcomes for billions. Yet each policy lever has ripple effects across other domains that should be accounted for in effective policy design. Moreover, the complexity of the desired analysis may create a gap with stakeholders who should align with and adopt policy implications. Building on research in system dynamics, urban economics, complexity science, and other modeling disciplines, as well as community engagement methods, this paper outlines a framework for model-assisted design and implementation of policies to help cities navigate toward their desired futures. Starting from the guiding principles of rigorous policy assessment, inclusivity, transparency, and scalable engagement, our framework offers a roadmap on two fronts. First, we outline architectural choices in modeling to rigorously account for interactions among households, businesses, buildings, transportation, education, and other infrastructure, which create significant ripple effects for any intervention. Second, we discuss community engagement methods that build trust, help discover win-win solutions, and enable implementation at scale. We hope this framework is a stepping stone in engaging a new generation of model-based policy design initiatives with diverse urban communities. Robust and broad-boundary models capable of capturing complex, interconnected dynamics of cities go hand-in-hand with inclusive processes that engage stakeholders. Rigorous models without community engagement are more likely to be ignored, and engaging communities in implementing myopic policies that ignore ripple effects in complex urban systems can backfire. For editing parts of the document