Abstract for: Applying System Dynamics for Modeling Land Use Change impacts On Acequia Systems Resilience

Acequias, community-managed irrigation systems in northern New Mexico, have long supported local agriculture but now face threats from climate change, residential expansion, and economic pressures. In the Rio Hondo watershed, land use changes—declining irrigated pastures and increasing roads—reduce vegetation cover and aquifer recharge. This study explores land use dynamics and strategies to enhance acequia resilience amid development pressures. This study employs a system dynamics model to explore how land use changes and climate variability impact acequia resilience. By integrating spatial, economic, and hydrological data, it assesses historical trends and future scenarios. Understanding feedback loops within agriculture, water, and socio-economic systems can help identify strategies to sustain acequia communities amid growing development and environmental challenges. For this study, our dynamic hypothesis focuses on the relationship between water, community, agriculture, and residential development, incorporating feedback structures between the variables. It includes the Residential-Groundwater loop (B1), Irrigation-Recharge loop (R1), Agroeconomic loop (R2), and Socio-hydrology loop (R3), illustrating how residential expansion can impact the acequia system. We expect that expanding residential land will decrease groundwater recharge and reduce agricultural income. For this study, our dynamic hypothesis focuses on the relationship between water, community, agriculture, and residential development, incorporating feedback structures between the variables. It includes the Residential-Groundwater loop (B1), Irrigation-Recharge loop (R1), Agroeconomic loop (R2), and Socio-hydrology loop (R3), illustrating how residential expansion can impact the acequia system. We expect that expanding residential land will decrease groundwater recharge and reduce agricultural income.