Abstract for: Solving Systemic Socio-Economic Dilemmas in Regional Australia

How can small Australian regional communities respond to demographic, economic and climate change, to ensure ongoing prosperity and wellbeing? The challenge is to develop sustainable regional development policies (and a supporting decision tool) that address the complex interplay of population dynamics, economic resilience, and community wellbeing, in the context of impending impacts of climate change. An exemplar community was chosen for the study, A causal loop diagram was developed and refined based on discussions with stakeholders. A deep longitudinal analysis of census demographic and economic data was supplemented with community wellbeing and environmental scenario data to construct the simulation model and test policy options. These policies were tested under two different climate change scenarios. The system's behaviour over time is not sustainable due to the structure of the ageing population and the local economy. Multiple policy interventions are required to re-balance the system. Policy options include increasing net domestic migration levels and adopting a younger economically active population focus, supplemented with a program of industry investment. The apparent solution is an inclusive suite of policies, not one policy. This study draws on the application of SD to studies of regional development, economic sectors and local small business. There is potential to apply a generic SD model, custom parameters to regional towns. Institutional capacity development (Local Government, State Government, Business, community groups) is important to enhance systems thinking amongst decision makers. The model lays the foundation for creating a regional development management simulator.