Abstract for: Application of Life Cycle Assessment Calculation Methodologies to Quantify Upstream Impact within the System Dynamics Framework

A conventional approach to calculation environmental impacts is to use an emission factor, such as for Global Warming Potential (GWP). However, this approach may aggregate potentially important aspects such as which economic activity actually produces the greenhouse gas (GHG), and what type of GHG. If there is a need to report Scope 1 through 3 per the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, a simple emission factor approach may be limiting. A freely available life cycle assessment (LCA) dataset was modified to be compatible with the Stella system dynamics software. This allowed for calculating the direct (Scope 1) and indirect (Scope 2 and 3) requirements using the Leontief input-output matrix inversion. This was combined with the energy demands of the German buildings sector per DNV's Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) system dynamics model. The GWP calculation approach of the ETO model was compared with the ETO+LCA approach proposed in this submission. The ETO building sector utilizes a diverse set of energy carriers, so the energy carrier demands from the ETO model resulted in an array of processes emitting GHG at different Scopes. The GHGs contributing to the overall GWP impact was predominantly CO2 and methane. Scope 3 contributed higher than expected at more than 10%. Scope 3 emissions from coal declines, but emissions from natural gas remains prominent to upstream emissions. While the methodology is not per se an SD technique, it can be a valuable tool in dynamically quantifying industrial process activities and the environmental emissions that occur. While the author does not recommend relying solely on the described technique to quantify Scope 2 emissions, it could be an essential technique to quantify total upstream activities and emissions (Scope 3). As described here, it could mean capturing an additional 10% of environmental impacts that would otherwise be overlooked.