Abstract for: A System Dynamics Framework for Mining Planning: From National to District-Level with a Territorial Focus

Mining plays a crucial role in Colombia’s economy, yet its governance faces challenges due to economic, environmental, and social trade-offs. National-level planning often overlooks local dynamics, limiting its effectiveness in addressing region-specific issues. This research shifts to a district-level approach, capturing local interactions, land-use conflicts, and socio-environmental impacts to inform more targeted and sustainable policy strategies​. The study employs system dynamics modeling to simulate mining sector interactions across five districts. The models incorporate economic, environmental, and social variables, validated through expert discussions and historical data comparisons. Scenario analysis includes a baseline and an optimistic case, considering international markets, technology, and policy factors to assess long-term sector sustainability​. Simulations reveal significant trade-offs between production, employment, environmental impacts, and social conflict across districts. The Bajo Cauca and San Juan districts, driven by gold and platinum mining, face severe land degradation. Coal-dependent regions, like Sugamuxi-Tundama, require economic diversification to mitigate decarbonization impacts. Formalization policies and technological improvements could enhance sustainability while balancing economic and environmental priorities​. Model validation confirms its usefulness for mining governance and planning. While capturing key dynamics, the models do not encompass all socio-environmental complexities, requiring complementary approaches for long-term assessments. Findings emphasize the need for formalization, balanced land use, and stakeholder collaboration to ensure sustainable mining practices. Policymakers must address conflicts and economic transitions to promote equitable development​. For editing purpuses