Abstract for: Exploring Climate-Driven Vulnerabilities in the Beef Feedlot Production Segment Using System Dynamics

The US beef production system is a complex network that coalesces in the Southern Great Plains, where the concentrated feedlot sector finishes cattle. This region is experiencing more extreme weather events that threaten water and forage availability, and crop production sustainability is needed to maintain cattle health and productivity. We aim to develop a system dynamics model that explores the climate change vulnerabilities of feedlot operations. We employ SD methodology to capture the interaction between 1) feeder cattle inflows, cattle performance (weight gain), and health risks (morbidity and recovery dynamics), 2) feed and water availability, feed price and selection, 3) financial feedback from costs and revenues, and 4) climate drivers (temperature, precipitation, extreme event frequency). --- By incorporating the effects of rainfall, heat and cold stress, and water availability on feedlot system, we will present a comprehensive model that investigates the climate-driven vulnerabilities of the beef feedlot segment in the Southern Great Plains. We believe this model’s results offer a pathway to deeper insight into the structure, management, and behavior of the feedlot segment. It helps to understand the resilience of the feedlot operation under climate change and extreme weather events.