Abstract for: From Energy Crops to Jet Fuel: Modeling the SAF Market Potential in Ecuador

The aviation industry is a major contributor to global carbon emissions, yet decarbonizing air travel remains a critical challenge. Ecuador, a jet fuel producer with a rapidly growing aviation sector, presents a unique opportunity to develop a Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) market. The country’s robust agricultural sector, existing infrastructure, and potential for energy crop cultivation position it as an ideal candidate for SAF production and advancing global emissions reduction efforts. The SAF supply chain is modeled across three stages: upstream (feedstock cultivation), midstream (pyrolysis conversion and bio-oil upgrading), and downstream (distribution and commercialization). A quantitative framework tracks production volumes and blending ratios over time, calibrated with historical data on jet fuel consumption, land use, and crop yields. Scenario analysis evaluates policy impacts and resource allocation for achieving Ecuador’s SAF targets. The model demonstrates a logistic growth pattern for Ecuador’s SAF market, with slow initial growth due to energy crop cultivation challenges and infrastructure adaptation. Preliminary results indicate that producing less than 5% blending is achievable in the short term. However, scaling up will require significant technological investment, feedstock optimization, and policy support to reach higher blending ratios over time. This study provides a flexible framework to test the model with alternative energy crops, optimizing feedstock selection for SAF production. For further research, integrating an economic model will assess the financial viability and investment potential of the SAF market. Additionally, modeling more policies, such as subsidies or carbon pricing, could offer deeper insights into scaling Ecuador’s SAF industry. The author acknowledges using DeepSeek, an AI-powered writing assistant, to enhance the vocabulary and grammar of this document.