Abstract for: National long-term climate policy planning tool for decarbonization of municipal solid waste sector

Climate change is one of the major challenges faced by the planet. The waste sector is among other sectors having an impact on greenhouse gas emissions. The dynamics of this sector are driven by complex structures, including collection, transportation, processing, recycling, and disposal of waste materials produced at household levels and industries. Waste management can reduce various impacts on climate change through various approaches. This study aims to develop a system dynamics model of the national-level municipal solid waste sector to understand behavior and underlying structure to reduce methane emissions from biodegradable waste. This model is a part of a larger national climate policy simulation model (incl. energy, transportation, agriculture, and land use and land use change) applied by climate policy designers at the national level for long-term policy planning. Simulation results of three policy scenarios illustrate how the system's internal dynamics can address policy goals set by the national government. The model structure explains the role of delays in the diffusion of sorting and circular economics practices and the impact on deeply rooted habits and behaviors. The current version of the model has a limited number of policy measures. It can be supplemented with additional economic incentives such as taxes, contracts, and business models to leverage alternative ways to reduce GHG emissions from the waste sector. This study has been funded by the Latvian National Research Programm project: “Climate neutrality decision making supporting models (VPP Klimats)”, No. VPP-KEM-Klimatneitralitāte-2023/1-0002