Abstract for: A System Dynamics Approach towards nearly zero energy districts

The transition to near-zero energy districts is shaped by a complex interplay of stakeholder interests, technological complementarities, and market dynamics. This study sheds light on understanding the diffusion of decarbonization technologies by exploring the factors influencing the adoption of photovoltaics, heat pumps, and district heating. We develop a system dynamics model to capture the interactions among stakeholders and assess the influence of their interests, ranging from municipalities' CO₂ reduction goals to investors' profitability concerns to residents' energy cost considerations, on the diffusion of renewable energy. The approach allows for scenario testing to assess the influence of different uncertain variables. The results show that investors' perceptions of financial benefits have a significant impact on the adoption of decarbonization technologies, which in turn leads to lower CO₂ emissions and lower gross rents for current occupants. The study underscores the critical role of stakeholder interests in shaping the energy transition in a district. Future research will extend the model to test innovative business models and policies. AI was mainly used to correct the grammar in the paper