Abstract for: Food self-sufficiency: system dynamics modeling for managing agricultural in Papua Mountain Province, Indonesia

Papua Mountain Province faces severe challenges in food security, exacerbated by high transportation costs, limited infrastructure, and economic constraints. The region's dependence on external food sources increases price volatility and economic vulnerability. Conventional strategies fail to address systemic constraints, limiting progress toward self-sufficiency. This study applies system dynamics modeling to identify key feedback loops, offering insights into sustainable food security strategies tailored to regional conditions. This study integrates system dynamics modeling, Location Quotient (LQ), and shift-share analysis to assess agricultural self-sufficiency. The system dynamics model identifies interdependencies between food production, infrastructure, and economic access. LQ and shift-share analysis help determine regional agricultural strengths and structural constraints. This approach provides a comprehensive understanding of food security challenges, guiding adaptive policies for sustainable agricultural development and regional food resilience. Findings indicate that transportation limitations, economic constraints, and production inefficiencies significantly impact food self-sufficiency. LQ and shift-share analysis identify key agricultural commodities with potential for growth, but logistical barriers limit optimization. The system dynamics model highlights reinforcing and balancing feedback loops, emphasizing the need for infrastructure investment, localized farming programs, and market accessibility improvements to reduce dependence on external food sources and enhance sustainability. The study reveals that traditional policies do not fully address Papua Mountain Province’s unique food security challenges. The system dynamics model illustrates how infrastructure gaps, economic factors, and agricultural productivity are interrelated. A dynamic, integrated policy approach is necessary to improve food security through strategic investments in transportation, agricultural development, and regional economic planning, ensuring long-term agricultural sustainability and resilience. I use AI for translation because it enhances accuracy and clarity, making the text easier to understand