Abstract for: Sustainable Small-Scale Tomato Production in DF, Brazil

This study examines how public policy interventions impact tomato production by small farmers in the Federal District, Brazil. Using system dynamics modeling, the research evaluates productivity and environmental effects. The study seeks to identify the most effective strategies to enhance agricultural output while mitigating negative externalities related to soil and water management. A system dynamics model was developed using Vensim, incorporating three key stocks: tomato plants, fertilizers, and financial resources. Seven exogenous decision variables were tested across multiple policy scenarios, simulating their impact over a 100-week period. The model analyzes productivity, environmental sustainability, and the efficiency of different policy combinations. Adapted cultivars and certified seedlings were the most effective policies for improving productivity and reducing environmental harm. Implementing all policies together yielded the highest impact, but gains beyond the combination of adapted cultivars and certified seedlings were marginal. Sensitivity analysis highlighted that substantial benefits from adapted cultivars were only realized at high implementation levels. The study emphasizes the need for targeted policy interventions to maximize agricultural efficiency. Prioritizing adapted cultivars and certified seedlings can achieve optimal results while minimizing resource use. Future research should refine parameterization, enhance data collection, and expand the model to incorporate additional supply chain actors. These steps will support more effective and sustainable policy-making in small-scale agriculture. To check writing