Abstract for: Modeling the Dynamics of Access to Healthy Food. The Case of Cleveland, Ohio.

Cleveland’s food insecurity problem is emblematic of broader issues facing urban populations globally. Structural inequities, such as historical segregation patterns, systemic disinvestment in specific neighborhoods, and economic policies that fail to address wage stagnation, have created an uneven landscape of resource access Addressing access to healthy food requires a systemic approach, considering the intricate interplay of factors influencing food access, affordability, and consumption. This study employs a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach to analyze the factors influencing access to healthy food in Cleveland, Ohio. The model was developed based on insights from a Group Model Building (GMB) workshop initially designed to examine the onset and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors among low-income African Americans. The simulation results indicate that the number of households in Cleveland, Ohio, with limited access to healthy food is expected to rise due to increasing challenges in food affordability. As a result, the presence of unhealthy food retailers is projected to grow across Cleveland neighborhoods, leading to a greater reliance on food banks and pantries to support food-insecure households. Additionally, the frequent closure of grocery stores offering healthy food is anticipated to contribute to the expansion of food deserts. These insights carry important policy implications. In public policy, it is crucial that all food insecurity and healthy food access interventions include programs that enhance individuals’ and households’ income potential to ensure sustainable outcomes