Abstract for: Is the key to India’s circular economy goals hidden in Voluntary Vehicle Modernization Program (VVMP)?

Voluntary vehicle modernization programs (VVMP) promise to reduce carbon footprints, boost vehicle sales and fulfill circular economy vows. This research work explores the quantum of the fulfillment of these promises in an emerging economy setup. To estimate the impact of VVMP, introduced in India in 2021, we use system dynamics modeling and simulation to gauge the state of gap between target vehicle scrappage and available infrastructure. The study develops a causal loop diagram and a stock-flow diagram to simulate the best policy alternatives to vehicle scrappage and recycling. The policy analyses are carried out for 17 years between 2023 to 2040 under four different scenarios. Using actual passenger vehicle registration data from 2008 to 2023, we estimate that a substantial improvement in registered vehicle scrappage facilities’ infrastructure is needed to see a sizeable increment in scrappage capacity in India. We find that with 638 RVSFs, India can bring 30.61 percent recycled material in auto supply chain by closing the loop. Our findings provide the policymakers with key inputs to have the right mix of large scrappage facilities (run by MNCs) and MSMEs (run by micro, small, and medium enterprises). The work also extends the literature that focuses on recycling aspect of vehicle scrappage programs worldwide. Natural Language Processing to refine policies and improve model assumptions.