(001) A= 4 Units: dmnl (002) Additions to Gas Identified Resource= Effective Investment in Exploration*Productivity of Investment in Gas Exploration /1e+06 Units: million bbls/Year (003) Additions to Oil Identified Resource= Effective Investment in Exploration*Productivity of Investment in Oil Exploration /1e+06 Units: million bbls/Year (004) Admission Rate= ((Enrollment Capacity*Effect of Social Demand on Admission Rate-Number of Students )/(Time To Adjust Number Of Students+0.01))+Average Termination Rate Units: persons/Year (005) Adult Population= INTEG ( Flow of School Age to Adult Population-Death Rate of Adult Population, 1.1999e+07) Units: persons (006) Agricultural Land = 9.271e+06 Units: Hectars (007) Availability Indicator for Capital Goods= (Market Effect Coefficient For Capital Goods*Availability of Capital Goods )+(1-Market Effect Coefficient For Capital Goods)*(Output of Capital Goods Sector /Demand for Capital Goods) Units: dmnl (008) Availability Indicator for Consumption Goods= (Market Effect Coefficient*Availability of Consumption Goods)+((1-Market Effect Coefficient )*(Output of Consumption Goods Sector/Demand for Consumption Goods)) Units: dmnl (009) Availability Indicator for Intermediate Goods= (Market Effect For Intermedite Goods*Availability of Intermediate Goods)+ ((1-Market Effect For Intermedite Goods)*(Output of Intermediate Goods Sector /Demand for Intermediate Goods)) Units: dmnl (010) Availability of Capital Goods= Total Capital Goods/Demand for Capital Goods Units: dmnl (011) Availability of Consumption Goods= Total Consumption Goods/Demand for Consumption Goods Units: dmnl (012) Availability of Enrollment Capacity= Enrollment Capacity/Social Demand for Education Units: dmnl (013) Availability of Intermediate Goods= Total Intermediate Goods/Demand for Intermediate Goods Units: dmnl (014) Available Income Per Capita= (((Foreign Exchange Reserves/Time To Spent Accumulated Income)+Gross Domestic Product )*1e+06)/Population Units: R/person/Year (015) Average Availability of Capital Good= INTEG ( Smoothing of Average Availability of Capital Goods, 1) Units: dmnl (016) Average Availability of Consumption Good= INTEG ( Smoothing of Average Availability of Consumption Goods, 1) Units: dmnl (017) Average Availability of Investment Good= INTEG ( Smoothing of Average Availability of Intermediate Goods, 1) Units: dmnl (018) Average Desired Capital in Agricultural Sector= INTEG ( Averaging from Desired Capital in Agricultural Sector, 6.13044e+06) Units: million R (019) Average Desired Capital in Industrial Sector= INTEG ( Averaging from Desired Capital in Industrial Sector, 3.7287e+07) Units: million R (020) Average Desired Education in Agricultural Sector= INTEG ( Averaging from Desired Education in Agricultural Sector, 1780) Units: Thousand man year of schooling (021) Average Desired Education on Industrial Sector= INTEG ( Averaging from Desired Education in Industrial Sector, 8220) Units: Thousand man year of schooling (022) Average Desired Labor in Agricultural Sector= INTEG ( Averaging from Desired Labor in Agricultural Sector, 3.417e+06) Units: persons (023) Average Desired Labor in Industrial Sector= INTEG ( Averaging from Desired Labor in Industrial Sector, 3.158e+06) Units: person (024) Average Desired Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector= INTEG ( Smoothing of Average Desired Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector, 69565) Units: million R/Year (025) Average Desired Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector= INTEG ( Smoting of Average Desired Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector , 1.73913e+07) Units: million R/Year (026) Average Desired Production Capacity in Education= INTEG ( Smoothing of Desired Production Capacity in Education Sector, 1.04348e+06) Units: million R/Year (027) Average Desired Production Capacity in Intermediate Good Sector= INTEG ( Smoothing of Average Desired Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector , 521739) Units: million R/Year (028) Average Export of Capital Goods= INTEG ( Smoothing of Export for Capital Goods, 1739) Units: million R/Year (029) Average Export of Consumption Goods= INTEG ( Smoothing of Export for Consumption Goods, 434783) Units: million R/Year (030) Average Export of Food= INTEG ( Smoothing of Export for Food, 643478) Units: million R/Year (031) Average Export of Intermediate Goods= INTEG ( Smoothing of Export for Intermediate Goods, 113043) Units: million R/Year (032) Average Gas Import= INTEG ( Change in Average Gas Import, 1) Units: million bbls/Year (033) Average Marginal Utility of Capital= Fraction of Capital in Agriculture*Marginal Utility of Capital in Agricultural Sector +(1-Fraction of Capital in Agriculture)*Marginal Utility of Capital in Industrial Sector Units: Utility/million R (034) Average Marginal Utility of Labor= Fraction of Labor in Agriculture*Marginal Utility of Labor in Agricultural Sector +(1-Fraction of Labor in Agriculture)*Marginal Utility of Labor in Idustrial Sector Units: Utility/Labor (035) Average Oil Import= INTEG ( Change in Average Oil Import, 1) Units: million bbls/Year (036) Average Productivity in Industrial Sector= ((Fraction of Production Capacity in Consumption Good Sector*Productivity in Consumption Goods Sector )+(Fraction of Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector*Productivity in Intermediate Goods Sector )+(Fraction of Production Capacity in Capital Good Sector*Productivity in Capital Goods Sector ))/(Fraction of Production Capacity in Consumption Good Sector+Fraction of Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector +Fraction of Production Capacity in Capital Good Sector) Units: dmnl (037) Average Termination Rate= INTEG ( Smoothing of Termination Rate, 437640) Units: persons/Year (038) Average Total Desired Imports= INTEG ( Smoothing of Total Desired Imports, 9.01e+06) Units: million R/Year (039) Averaging from Desired Capital in Agricultural Sector= (Desired Capital in Agricultural Sector-Average Desired Capital in Agricultural Sector )/Time To Adjust Capital Units: million R/Year (040) Averaging from Desired Capital in Industrial Sector= (Desired Capital in Industrial Sector-Average Desired Capital in Industrial Sector )/Time To Adjust Capital Units: million R/Year (041) Averaging from Desired Education in Agricultural Sector= (Desired Education in Agricultural Sector-Average Desired Education in Agricultural Sector )/Time To Adjust Education Units: Thousand man year of schooling/Years (042) Averaging from Desired Education in Industrial Sector= (Desired Education in Industrial Sector-Average Desired Education on Industrial Sector )/Time To Adjust Education Units: Thousand man year of schooling/Years (043) Averaging from Desired Labor in Agricultural Sector= (Desired Labor in Agricultural Sector-Average Desired Labor in Agricultural Sector )/Time To Adjust Labor Units: persons/Year (044) Averaging from Desired Labor in Industrial Sector= (Desired Labor in Industrial Sector-Average Desired Labor in Industrial Sector )/Time To Adjust Labor Units: persons/Year (045) Averge Marginal Utility of Education= Fraction of Education in Agriculture*Marginal Utility of Education in Agricultural Sector +(1-Fraction of Education in Agriculture)*Marginal Utility of Education in Industrial Sector Units: Utility/Thousand man year of schooling (046) Birth Rate= Adult Population*Normal Birth Rate*Multiplier for Birth Rate from Food*Multiplier for Birth Rate from Industrialization *Multiplier for Birth Rate from Education Units: persons/Year (047) Brain Drain During War= Education*Brain Drain Rate Units: Thousand man year of schooling/Years (048) Brain Drain Rate= IF THEN ELSE((Time<1979):OR:(Time>1989), 0 , 0.05 ) Units: 1/Year (049) Capital Depreciation= Capital Stock/Life Of Capital Units: million R/Year (050) Capital Destruction During War= Capital Stock*Capital Destruction Rate Units: million R/Year (051) Capital Destruction Rate= IF THEN ELSE( (Time<1980):OR:(Time>1989) , 0, War Destruction Rate ) Units: 1/Year (052) Capital Formation= primary Capital Formation/Delay For Capital Formation Units: million R/Year (053) Capital in Agricultural Sector= Fraction of Capital in Agriculture*Capital Stock Units: million R (054) Capital in Industrial Sector= (1-Fraction of Capital in Agriculture)*Capital Stock Units: million R (055) Capital Stock= INTEG ( Capital Formation-Capital Depreciation-Capital Destruction During War, 4.34174e+07) Units: million R (056) Change in Average Gas Import= (MAX(1, Gas Import )-Average Gas Import)/Import Delay Units: million bbls/(Year*Year) (057) Change in Average Oil Import= (MAX(1, Oil Import )-Average Oil Import)/Import Delay Units: million bbls/(Year*Year) (058) Change In Desired Gas Injection= (Desired Gas Injection-Desired Gas Injection at End of the Year) Units: million bbls/(Year*Year) (059) Change in Effective Investment in Exploration= (Investment in Exploration-Effective Investment in Exploration)/Development Delay Units: million R/Year/Year (060) Change in Energy Demand= Total Energy Demand-Energy Demand at the End of the Year Units: million bbls/(Year*Year) (061) Change in Energy Supply= Total Energy Supply-Energy Supply at the End of the Year Units: million bbls/Year/Year (062) Change in Experience in Capital Goods Sector= (Value Added in Capital Goods Sector-Experience in Capital Goods Sector)/ Time To Average Experience In Capital Goods Sector Units: R/(Year*Year) (063) Change in Experience in Consumption Goods Sector= (Value Added in Consumption Goods Sector-Experience in Consumption Goods Sector )/Time To Average Experience In Consumption Goods Sector Units: R/(Year*Year) (064) Change in Experience in Intermediate Goods Sector= (Output of Intermediate Goods Sector-Experience in Intermediate Goods Sector )/Time To Average Experience In Intermediate Goods Sector Units: R/(Year*Year) (065) Change in Gas Export= (Indicated Gas Export-Gas Export) Units: million bbls/(Year*Year) (066) Change in Gas Injection= Gas Injection-Gas Injection at the End of the Year Units: million bbls/(Year*Year) (067) Change in Investment in Gas Production= (Investment in Gas Production-Investment in Gas Production at the End of the Year )*Gas Industry Turning Point Units: million R/(Year*Year) (068) Change in Investment in Oil Production= Investment in Oil Production-Investment in Oil Production at the End of the Year Units: million R/Year/Year (069) Change in Oil Export= Indicated Oil Export-Oil Export Units: million bbls/(Year*Year) (070) Change in Urban Population Ratio= (1-Urban Population Ratio)*Growth Rate in Urban Population Units: 1/Year (071) Coefficient For Desired Enrollment Ratio From Education= 0.5 Units: dmnl (072) Coefficient For Drop Out From Education= 0.5 Units: dmnl (073) Coefficient For Duration of Education From Education= 0.5 Units: dmnl (074) Coefficient For Technological Progress Through Transfer = 1.5 Units: dmnl (075) Constant for Effect of Political Change= ((1-Switch for Changing Political Condition)*0.3)+(Switch for Changing Political Condition *Political Condition Indicator) Units: dmnl (076) Constant for Energy Demand Function= EXP(-9) Units: dmnl (077) "Constant for Qatar's Discovery no.1"= 0.0005 Units: dmnl (078) "Constant for Qatar's Discovery no.2"= 0.1 Units: dmnl (079) "Constant for Qatar's Production no.1"= 0.0007 Units: dmnl (080) "Constant for Qatar's Production no.2"= 0.01 Units: dmnl (081) Crude Birth Rate= (Birth Rate/Adult Population)*1000 Units: 1/Year (082) Crude Death Rate for Adult Population= (Death Rate of Adult Population/Adult Population)*1000 Units: 1/Year (083) Crude Death Rate for Pre School Age Children= (Date Rate of Pre School Age Children/Pre School Age Children)*1000 Units: 1/Year (084) Crude Death Rate for School Age Children= (Death Rate of School Age Children/School Age Children)*1000 Units: 1/Year (085) Crude Death Rate for Total Population= (Death Rate/Population)*1000 Units: 1/Year (086) Cumulative Gas Production= INTEG ( Gas Production Rate, Initial Cumulative Gas Production) Units: million bbls (087) Cumulative Oil Production= INTEG ( Oil Production Rate, 3000) Units: million bbls (088) Date Rate of Pre School Age Children= Normal Death Rate Of PreSchool Age Children*Pre School Age Children*Multiplier for Death Rate from Food *Multiplier for Death Rate from Industrialization Units: persons/Year (089) Death Rate= Date Rate of Pre School Age Children+Death Rate of School Age Children+Death Rate of Adult Population Units: persons/Year (090) Death Rate of Adult Population= Adult Population*Normal Death Rate Of Adult Population*Multiplier for Death Rate from Food *Multiplier for Death Rate from Industrialization Units: persons/Year (091) Death Rate of School Age Children= Normal Death Rate Of School Age Children*School Age Children*Multiplier for Death Rate from Food *Multiplier for Death Rate from Industrialization Units: persons/Year (092) Decrease in Gas Price= IF THEN ELSE((Time<2010):OR:(Time>2015), 0 , Rate of Decrease in Gas Price *Forecast Gas Price ) Units: million R/bbls/Year (093) Decrease in Investment Security= (Investment Security-Indicated Investment Security)/Time to Decrease Investment Security Units: 1/Year (094) Decrease in Oil Price= IF THEN ELSE((Time<2010):OR:(Time>2015), 0 , Forcast of Oil Price*RDOP ) Units: million R/(Year*bbls) (095) Decrease in Present Value= Energy Import Value/EXP(Market Interest Rate*(Time-INITIAL TIME)) Units: million R/Year (096) Delay For Capital Formation= 2 Units: Year (097) Demand for Capital Goods= Domestic Demand for Capital Goods+Exported Capital Goods Units: million R/Year (098) Demand for Consumption Goods= Domestic Demand for Consumption Goods+Exported Consumption Goods+Domestic Demand for Construction Units: million R/Year (099) Demand for Intermediate Goods= Domestic Demand for Intermediate Goods+Exported Intermediate Goods Units: million R/Year (100) Demand for Intermediate Goods in Capital Goods Sector= Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector*Intermediate Goods Value Added Ratio In Capital Goods Sector *Utilization Factor in Capital Goods Sector from Demand Units: million R/Year (101) Demand for Intermediate Goods in Consumption Goods Sector= Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector*Intermediate Goods Value Added Ratio in Consumption Goods Sector *Utilization Factor in Consumption Goods Sector from Demand Units: million R/Year (102) Demand Output Discrepancy for Capital Goods= Domestic Demand for Capital Goods-Output of Capital Goods Sector Units: million R/Year (103) Demand Output Discrepancy for Consumption Goods= Domestic Demand for Consumption Goods+Domestic Demand for Construction-Output of Consumption Goods Sector Units: million R/Year (104) Demand Output Discrepancy for Food= Domestic Demand for Food-Food Output Units: million R/Year (105) Demand Output Discrepancy for Intermediate Goods= Domestic Demand for Intermediate Goods-Output of Intermediate Goods Sector Units: million R/Year (106) Desired Capital in Agricultural Sector= Capital in Agricultural Sector*Multiplier for Capital in Agricultural Sector Units: million R (107) Desired Capital in Industrial Sector= Capital in Industrial Sector*Multiplier for Capital in Industrial Sector Units: million R (108) Desired Change in Market Share= 0 Units: dmnl (109) Desired Education in Agricultural Sector= Multiplier for Education in Agricultural Sector*Education in Agricultural Sector Units: Thousand man year of schooling (110) Desired Education in Industrial Sector= Multiplier for Education in Industrial Sector*Education in Industrial Sector Units: Thousand man year of schooling (111) Desired Enrollment Ratio= (Coefficient For Desired Enrollment Ratio From Education*Desired Enrollment Ratio from Education )+((1-Coefficient For Desired Enrollment Ratio From Education)*(Desired Enrollment Ratio from Income )) Units: dmnl (112) Desired Enrollment Ratio from Education = WITH LOOKUP ( School Years per Adult Population, ([(0,0)-(6,2)],(0,0),(0.5,0.45),(1,0.6),(1.5,0.7),(2,0.8),(2.5,0.85),(3, 0.9),(3.5,0.925),(4,0.95),(4.5,0.965),(5,0.98),(5.5,0.99),(6,1) )) Units: dmnl (113) Desired Enrollment Ratio from Income = WITH LOOKUP ( Growth Domestic Product Per Capita, ([(0,0)-(1.30435e+07,2)],(0,0),(869567,0.45),(1.73913e+06,0.6),(2.6087e+06 ,0.69),(3.47827e+06,0.75),(4.34783e+06,0.8),(5.2174e+06,0.84),(6.08697e+06 ,0.88),(6.95653e+06,0.91),(7.8261e+06,0.94),(8.69567e+06,0.955),(9.56523e+06 ,0.97),(1.04348e+07,0.98),(1.13044e+07,0.99),(1.21739e+07,0.995),(1.30435e+07 ,1) )) Units: dmnl (114) Desired Export of Capital Goods= Fraction for Export of Capital Goods*Output of Capital Goods Sector*Multiplier for Export from Foreign Exchange Availability Units: million R/Year (115) Desired Export of Consumption Goods= Fraction for Export of Consumption Goods*Output of Consumption Goods Sector *Multiplier for Export from Foreign Exchange Availability Units: million R/Year (116) Desired Export of Food= Fraction for Export of Food*Food Output*Multiplier for Export from Foreign Exchange Availability Units: million R/Year (117) Desired Export of Intermediate Goods= Fraction for Export of Intermediate Goods*Output of Intermediate Goods Sector *Multiplier for Export from Foreign Exchange Availability Units: million R/Year (118) Desired Fraction of Income to Be Spent on Consumption= 1-Desired Fraction of Income to be Spent on Food-Desired Fraction of Income to Be Spent on Investment Units: dmnl (119) Desired Fraction of Income to be Spent on Food = WITH LOOKUP ( Available Income Per Capita, ([(0,0)-(8.696e+06,1)],(0,1),(869600,0.5),(1.7392e+06,0.3),(2.6088e+06, 0.23),(3.4784e+06,0.19),(4.348e+06,0.16),(5.2176e+06,0.14),(6.0872e+06,0.125 ),(6.9568e+06,0.116),(7.8264e+06,0.11),(8.696e+06,0.105) )) Units: dmnl (120) Desired Fraction of Income to Be Spent on Investment = WITH LOOKUP ( Available Income Per Capita, ([(0,0)-(8.696e+06,0.5)],(0,0),(869600,0.1),(1.7392e+06,0.16),(2.6088e+06 ,0.2),(3.4784e+06,0.225),(4.348e+06,0.24),(5.2176e+06,0.248),(6.0872e+06,0.253 ),(6.9568e+06,0.257),(7.8264e+06,0.259),(8.696e+06,0.26) )) Units: dmnl (121) Desired Gas Injection= Expected Oil Production*Gas Injection Required per Oil Output Units: million bbls/Year (122) Desired Gas Injection after Implementing New Policy= MIN(Gas Production Rate, Desired Gas Injection ) Units: million bbls/Year (123) Desired Gas Injection at End of the Year= INTEG ( Change In Desired Gas Injection, 78) Units: million bbls/Year (124) Desired Gas Production= Gas Potential Production from Reserves*(Multiplier for Desired Gas Production +Investment Security) Units: million bbls/Year (125) Desired Gas Revenues= SMOOTH(Gas Revenues, Time to Establish Average Energy Revenues )*(1+Normal Growth Rate in Energy Revenues -Economic Growth Rate) Units: million R/Year (126) Desired Growth in Energy Industry= 0.15 Units: 1/Year (127) Desired Import of Capital Goods= Fraction of Desired Capital Goods Import Policy*Output of Capital Goods Sector Units: million R/Year (128) Desired Import of Consumption Goods= Fraction Consumption Goods Import Policy*Output of Consumption Goods Sector Units: million R/Year (129) Desired Import of Food= Food Import Policy*Food Output Units: million R/Year (130) Desired Import of Intermediate Goods= Fraction of Intermediate Goods Import Policy*Output of Intermediate Goods Sector Units: million R/Year (131) Desired Investment in Energy Sector= Desired Investment in Exploration+Desired Investment in Oil Production+Desired Investment in Gas Production Units: million R/Year (132) Desired Investment in Exploration= ((Desired Investment in Gas Exploration+Desired Investment in Oil Exploration +(Effective Investment in Exploration*Desired Growth in Energy Industry*Development Delay ))*Signal for Investment in Exploration from Energy Production) Units: million R/Year (133) Desired Investment in Gas Exploration= Gas Production Rate*Signal to Stop Investing in Gas Exploration*Unit Cost of Gas Exploration *1e+06 Units: million R/Year (134) Desired Investment in Gas Production= Desired Gas Production*Unit Cost of Gas Production*Gas Industry Turning Point *Signal to Stop Investing in Gas Production*1e+06 Units: million R/Year (135) Desired Investment in Oil Exploration= Oil Production Rate*Unit Cost of Oil Exploration*Signal to Stop Investing in Oil Exploration *1e+06 Units: million R/Year (136) Desired Investment in Oil Production= Desired Oil Production*Signal to Stop Investing in Oil Production*Unit Cost of Oil Production *1e+06 Units: million R/Year (137) Desired Labor in Agricultural Sector= Multiplier for Labor in Agricultural Sector*Labor in Agricultural Sector Units: persons (138) Desired Labor in Industrial Sector= Multiplier for Labor in Industrial Sector*Labor in Industrial Sector Units: persons (139) Desired Oil Production= Oil Potential Production from Reserves*(Multiplier for Desired Oil Production +Investment Security) Units: million bbls/Year (140) Desired Oil Revenue= SMOOTH(Oil Revenues, Time to Establish Average Energy Revenues )*(1+Normal Growth Rate in Energy Revenues -Economic Growth Rate) Units: million R/Year (141) Desired Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector= Potential Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector*Multiplier for Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector from Availability *Multiplier for Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector from Capacity Utilization *Multiplier for Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector from Productivity Units: million R/Year (142) Desired Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector= Potential Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector*Multiplier for Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector from Availability *Multiplier for Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector from Capacity Utilization *Multiplier for Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector from Productivity Units: million R/Year (143) Desired Production Capacity in Education= Multiplier for Production Capacity in Education from Availability*Production Capacity in Education Sector Units: million R/Year (144) Desired Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector= Potential Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector*Multiplier for Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector from Availability *Multiplier for Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector from Productivity *Multiplier for Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector from Capacity Utilization Units: million R/Year (145) Desired Ratio of Energy Production from Reserve to Energy= 2 Units: dmnl (146) Development Delay= 10 Units: Year (147) Domestic Demand for Capital Goods= Fraction Of Investment In Capital Equipment*"Investment in Non-Energy Sectors" Units: million R/Year (148) Domestic Demand for Capital Investment= Desired Fraction of Income to Be Spent on Investment*(Population/1e+06)*Available Income Per Capita Units: million R/Year (149) Domestic Demand for Construction= (1-Fraction Of Investment In Capital Equipment)*"Investment in Non-Energy Sectors" *Multiplier for Demand for Construction from Availability of Capital Goods Units: million R/Year (150) Domestic Demand for Consumption Goods= Desired Fraction of Income to Be Spent on Consumption*(Population/1e+06)* Available Income Per Capita-Production Capacity in Education Sector Units: million R/Year (151) Domestic Demand for Food= Desired Fraction of Income to be Spent on Food*(Population/1e+06)*Available Income Per Capita Units: million R/Year (152) Domestic Demand for Intermediate Goods= Demand for Intermediate Goods in Consumption Goods Sector+Demand for Intermediate Goods in Capital Goods Sector Units: million R/Year (153) Domestic Energy Consumption= Domestic Gas Consumption+Domestic Oil Consumption Units: million bbls/Year (154) Domestic Energy Demand= Energy Demand Per Capita*Population Units: million bbls/Year DED: Domestic Energy Demand EDPC: Energy Demand Per capita POP: Population (155) Domestic Gas Consumption= MIN(Domestic Gas Demand,(Gas Production Rate-Gas Injection+Gas Import)) Units: million bbls/Year (156) Domestic Gas Demand= Domestic Energy Demand*Gas Market Share Units: million bbls/Year (157) Domestic Oil Consumption= MIN(Domestic Oil Demand, Oil Production Rate+Oil Import ) Units: million bbls/Year (158) Domestic Oil Demand= Domestic Energy Demand*(1-Gas Market Share) Units: million bbls/Year (159) Drop Out from Education = WITH LOOKUP ( School Years per Adult Population, ([(0,0)-(10,1)],(0,0.6),(2,0.45),(4,0.32),(6,0.22),(8,0.15),(10,0.1) )) Units: dmnl (160) Drop Out from Income = WITH LOOKUP ( Growth Domestic Product Per Capita, ([(0,0)-(1.30435e+07,1)],(0,0.7),(2.17392e+06,0.55),(4.34783e+06,0.42) ,(6.52175e+06,0.32),(8.69567e+06,0.25),(1.08696e+07,0.19),(1.30435e+07,0.15 ) )) Units: dmnl (161) Drop Out Ratio= (Coefficient For Drop Out From Education*Drop Out from Education)+((1-Coefficient For Drop Out From Education )*Drop Out from Income) Units: dmnl (162) Duration of Education= (Coefficient For Duration of Education From Education*Duration of Education from Education )+((1-Coefficient For Duration of Education From Education)*Duration of Education from Income ) Units: Year (163) Duration of Education from Education = WITH LOOKUP ( School Years per Adult Population, ([(0,0)-(10,20)],(0,0),(1,6),(2,9),(3,10.5),(4,11.4),(5,12.2),(6,12.8),( 7,13.3),(8,13.7),(9,13.9),(10,14) )) Units: Years (164) Duration of Education from Income = WITH LOOKUP ( Growth Domestic Product Per Capita, ([(0,0)-(1.21739e+07,20)],(0,0),(869564,5),(1.73913e+06,7),(2.60869e+06 ,8.8),(3.47826e+06,10),(4.34782e+06,11),(5.21739e+06,11.8),(6.08695e+06,12.4 ),(6.95651e+06,12.9),(7.82608e+06,13.2),(8.69564e+06,13.5),(9.56521e+06,13.7 ),(1.04348e+07,13.85),(1.13043e+07,13.95),(1.21739e+07,14) )) Units: Year (165) Duration of Pre School Period= 6 Units: Year (166) Duration of School Age Period= 8+(Potential Duration of School Age Period-8)*(Number of Students/School Age Children ) Units: Year (167) Economic Growth Rate= TREND(Gross Domestic Product , 1 , 0.08 ) Units: 1 (168) Education= INTEG ( Rate of Increase of Education-Brain Drain During War-Reduction of Education , 10000) Units: Thousand man year of schooling (169) Education in Agricultural Sector= Fraction of Education in Agriculture*Education Units: Thousand man year of schooling (170) Education in Industrial Sector= (1-Fraction of Education in Agriculture)*Education Units: Thousand man year of schooling (171) Effect of Gas Injection on Recovery Factor = WITH LOOKUP ( Gas Injection at the End of the Year/(Desired Gas Injection at End of the Year ), ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0.2),(0.2,0.4),(0.4,0.555),(0.6,0.675),(0.8,0.75),( 1,0.8) )) Units: dmnl (172) Effect of Investment on Gas Potential Production = WITH LOOKUP ( Gas Potential Production from Investment/Gas Potential Production from Reserves , ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0),(0.2,0.2),(0.4,0.4),(0.6,0.6),(0.8,0.8),(1,1),(1.2 ,1.08),(1.4,1.15),(1.6,1.2) )) Units: dmnl (173) Effect of Investment on Oil Potential Production = WITH LOOKUP ( Oil Potential Production from Investment/Oil Potential Production from Reserves , ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0),(0.2,0.2),(0.4,0.4),(0.6,0.6),(0.8,0.8),(1,1),(1.2 ,1.08),(1.4,1.15),(1.6,1.2) )) Units: dmnl (174) Effect of Political Changes on Investment Security= IF THEN ELSE( Time<1979 , 1 , Constant for Effect of Political Change) Units: dmnl (175) Effect of Social Demand on Admission Rate = WITH LOOKUP ( (Social Demand for Education/Enrollment Capacity), ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0),(0.2,0.4),(0.4,0.65),(0.6,0.85),(0.8,0.95),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (176) Effect of Technology on Gas Production = WITH LOOKUP ( Total Gas Recoverable Resource Remaining/Gas Identified Resource Remaining , ([(0,0)-(1,1)],(0,0),(0.2,0.2),(0.4,0.4),(0.6,0.6),(0.8,0.8),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (177) Effect of Technology on Oil Production = WITH LOOKUP ( Total Oil Recoverable Resource Remaining/Oil Identified Resource Remaining , ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0),(0.2,0.2),(0.4,0.4),(0.6,0.6),(0.8,0.8),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (178) Effect of Universities' Cultural Revolution on Education= IF THEN ELSE( (Time<1979):OR:(Time>1989) , 1 , 0.25 ) Units: dmnl (179) Effect of War constant= IF THEN ELSE((Time<1979):OR:(Time>1989), 1 , 1 ) Units: dmnl (180) Effect of War on Oil Production= SMOOTH( IF THEN ELSE (Time<1977 :OR:Time>1987, 1 , War Multiplier for Oil Production ) , War Effect Delay ) Units: dmnl (181) Effect of War on Production Capacity= IF THEN ELSE( Time<1979 , 1 , 0.2 ) Units: dmnl (182) Effective Investment in Exploration= INTEG ( Change in Effective Investment in Exploration, 12000) Units: million R/Year (183) Enegy Supply Per Capita= Energy Supply at the End of the Year/Population Units: million bbls/(Year*person) (184) Energy Availability Indicator= Energy Supply at the End of the Year/Energy Demand at the End of the Year Units: dmnl (185) Energy Demand at the End of the Year= INTEG ( Change in Energy Demand, 318) Units: million bbls/Year (186) Energy Demand Per Capita= (Constant for Energy Demand Function*(Growth Domestic Product Per Capita^ Exponent of GDP per capita in Energy Consumption Function)*(Urban Population Ratio ^Exponent of Urbanization of Energy Consumption function)*(Enegy Supply Per Capita ^Exponent of Energy Supply per capita in Energy Consumption)) Units: million bbls/(person*Year) (187) Energy Export Value= Gas Revenues+Oil Revenues Units: million R/Year (188) Energy Import= Gas Import+Oil Import Units: million bbls/Year (189) Energy Import Value= ((Gas Import*Gas Price)+(Oil Import*Oil Price))*1e+06 Units: million R/Year (190) Energy Intensity= Domestic Energy Consumption*1e+06/Gross Domestic Product Units: bbls/million R (191) Energy Production Delay= 6 Units: Year (192) Energy Substitution Delay= 20 Units: Year (193) Energy Supply at the End of the Year= INTEG ( Change in Energy Supply, 318) Units: million bbls/Year (194) Energy Supply per capita= Energy Supply at the End of the Year/Population Units: million bbls/(Year*person) (195) Energy Trade Present Value= INTEG ( Decrease in Present Value-Increase in Present Value, 0) Units: million R (196) Enrollment Capacity= (Production Capacity in Education Sector*1e+06)/Production Capacity per Enrollment Capacity Units: student (197) Exogenouse Gas Price = WITH LOOKUP ( Time, ([(0,0)-(2006,10)],(1958,0.019),(1959,0.019),(1960,0.017),(1961,0.016 ),(1962,0.016),(1963,0.016),(1964,0.016),(1965,0.016),(1966,0.016),(1967,0.016 ),(1968,0.015),(1969,0.015),(1970,0.015),(1971,0.017),(1972,0.017),(1973,0.018 ),(1974,0.042),(1975,0.039),(1976,0.039),(1977,0.035),(1978,0.032),(1979,0.059 ),(1980,0.056),(1981,0.05),(1982,0.042),(1983,0.035),(1984,0.029),(1985,0.065 ),(1986,0.052),(1987,0.03),(1988,0.022),(1989,0.021),(1990,0.035),(1991,0.042 ),(1992,0.039),(1993,0.052),(1994,0.049),(1995,0.035),(1996,0.029),(1997,0.027 ),(1998,0.019),(1999,0.013),(2000,0.021),(2001,0.024),(2002,0.078),(2003,0.089 ),(2004,0.085),(2005,0.104),(2006,0.137) )) Units: million R/bbls (198) Exogenouse Oil Price = WITH LOOKUP ( Time, ([(0,0)-(2006,1)],(1958,0.02),(1959,0.019),(1960,0.016),(1961,0.015),(1962 ,0.015),(1963,0.014),(1964,0.014),(1965,0.014),(1966,0.014),(1967,0.014),( 1968,0.014),(1969,0.013),(1970,0.013),(1971,0.016),(1972,0.016),(1973,0.018 ),(1974,0.053),(1975,0.048),(1976,0.047),(1977,0.041),(1978,0.038),(1979,0.077 ),(1980,0.072),(1981,0.064),(1982,0.052),(1983,0.042),(1984,0.039),(1985,0.08 ),(1986,0.036),(1987,0.036),(1988,0.024),(1989,0.032),(1990,0.05),(1991,0.046 ),(1992,0.048),(1993,0.061),(1994,0.06),(1995,0.043),(1996,0.042),(1997,0.033 ),(1998,0.019),(1999,0.022),(2000,0.031),(2001,0.024),(2002,0.097),(2003,0.1 ),(2004,0.123),(2005,0.164),(2006,0.177) )) Units: million R/bbls (199) Expected Oil Production= FORECAST(Oil Production Rate, 10 , Gas Injection Delay ) Units: million bbls/Year (200) Experience in Capital Goods Sector= INTEG ( Change in Experience in Capital Goods Sector, 55652) Units: million R/Year (201) Experience in Consumption Goods Sector= INTEG ( Change in Experience in Consumption Goods Sector, 1.3913e+07) Units: million R/Year (202) Experience in Intermediate Goods Sector= INTEG ( Change in Experience in Intermediate Goods Sector, 417391) Units: million R/Year (203) Experience Indicator in Capital Goods Sector= Experience in Capital Goods Sector/Potential Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector Units: dmnl (204) Experience Indicator in Consumption Goods Sector= Experience in Consumption Goods Sector/Potential Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector Units: dmnl (205) Experience Indicator in Intermediate Goods Sector= Experience in Intermediate Goods Sector/Potential Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector Units: dmnl (206) Exponent Of Capital In Agricultural Production Function = 0.1 Units: dmnl (207) Exponent Of Capital In Industrial Production Function= 0.3 Units: dmnl (208) Exponent Of Education In Agricultural Production Function= 0.2 Units: dmnl (209) Exponent Of Education In Industrial Production Function= 0.3 Units: dmnl (210) Exponent of Energy Supply per capita in Energy Consumption= 0.2655 Units: dmnl (211) Exponent of GDP per capita in Energy Consumption Function= 0.1055 Units: dmnl (212) Exponent Of Labor In Agricultural Production Function= 0.45 Units: dmnl (213) Exponent Of Labor In Industrial Production Function= 0.4 Units: dmnl (214) Exponent of Urbanization of Energy Consumption function= 2.2184 Units: dmnl (215) Exported Capital Goods= Average Export of Capital Goods*Multiplier for Export from Desired Export for Capital Goods Units: million R/Year (216) Exported Consumption Goods= Average Export of Consumption Goods*Multiplier for Export from Desired Export for Consumption Goods Units: million R/Year (217) Exported Food= Average Export of Food*Multiplier for Export from Desired Export for Food Units: million R/Year (218) Exported Intermediate Goods= Average Export of Intermediate Goods*Multiplier for Export from Desired Export for Intermediate Goods Units: million R/Year (219) FINAL TIME = 2050 Units: Year The final time for the simulation. (220) Flow of Pre School to School Age Children= Pre School Age Children/Duration of Pre School Period Units: persons/Year (221) Flow of School Age to Adult Population= School Age Children/Duration of School Age Period Units: persons/Year (222) Food Availability= Total Food/Domestic Demand for Food Units: dmnl (223) Food Import Policy= SMOOTH((Test of Food Import Policy*Fraction for Import of Food from policy A )+(1-Test of Food Import Policy)*(Fraction for Import of Food from policy A /A) ,3 ) Units: dmnl (224) Food Output= Food Output per Laborer*Labor in Agricultural Sector/1e+06 Units: million R/Year (225) Food Output per Laborer= Multiplier for Food Output per Laborer from Oil Availability*(Potential Food Output per Laborer -Primitive Food Output per Laborer)+Primitive Food Output per Laborer Units: R/(Year*person) (226) Food Output Production Function Constant= 1300 Units: million R/Year (227) Food per Capita= Total Food/(Population/1e+06) Units: R/(Year*person) (228) For Export Gas Demand= Desired Gas Revenues/(1e+06*Gas Price) Units: million bbls/Year (229) For Export Oil Demand= Desired Oil Revenue/(1e+06*Oil Price) Units: million bbls/Year (230) Forcast of Oil Price= INTEG ( Increase in Oil Price-Decrease in Oil Price, 0.177) Units: million R/bbls (231) Forecast Gas Price= INTEG ( Increase in Gas Price-Decrease in Gas Price, 0.137) Units: million R/bbls (232) Foreign Exchange Availability Indicator= Foreign Exchange Reserves/(Normal Foreign Exchange Coverage Time*Average Total Desired Imports ) Units: **undefined** (233) Foreign Exchange Reserves= INTEG ( Total Exports-Forreign Reserves Decrease During War-Total Import, 869565) Units: million R (234) Foreign Trade Ratio= (Total Import-Imported Food)/Non Oil Output Units: dmnl (235) Foreign Trade Ratio Normal= 0.12 Units: dmnl (236) Forreign Reserves Decrease During War= Foreign Exchange Reserves*Fraction of Decrease in Forreign Reserve Units: million R/Year (237) Fraction Consumption Goods Import Policy= SMOOTH( Test of Consumption Goods Import Policy*Fraction for Import of Consumption Goods from policy A +(1-Test of Consumption Goods Import Policy)*(Fraction for Import of Consumption Goods from policy A /A) , 3 ) Units: dmnl (238) Fraction for Export of Capital Goods = WITH LOOKUP ( Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Capital Goods, ([(-2,0)-(8,1.5)],(-2,1.2),(0,0.1),(2,0.05),(4,0.04),(6,0.035),(8,0.03) )) Units: dmnl (239) Fraction for Export of Consumption Goods = WITH LOOKUP ( Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Consumption Goods, ([(-0.5,0)-(1,0.3)],(-0.5,0.2),(-0.25,0.15),(0,0.08),(0.25,0.02),(0.5,0.01 ),(0.75,0.01),(1,0.01) )) Units: dmnl (240) Fraction for Export of Food = WITH LOOKUP ( Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Food, ([(-0.5,0)-(1.5,0.5)],(-0.5,0.3),(0,0.04),(0.5,0.02),(1,0.014),(1.5,0.01 ) )) Units: dmnl (241) Fraction for Export of Intermediate Goods = WITH LOOKUP ( Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Intermediate Goods, ([(-2,0)-(8,2)],(-2,1.5),(0,0.4),(2,0.25),(4,0.15),(6,0.12),(8,0.1) )) Units: dmnl (242) Fraction for Import of Capital Goods from policy A = WITH LOOKUP ( Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Capital Goods, ([(-2,0)-(30,30)],(-2,0.02),(0,0.1),(2,2),(4,4),(6,6),(8,8),(10,10),(12 ,12),(14,14),(16,16),(18,18),(20,20),(22,22),(24,24),(26,26),(28,28),(30,30 ) )) Units: dmnl (243) Fraction for Import of Capital Goods from policy B = WITH LOOKUP ( Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Capital Goods, ([(-2,0)-(8,5)],(-2,0),(0,0),(2,0.25),(4,0.5),(6,0.75),(8,1) )) Units: dmnl (244) Fraction for Import of Consumption Goods from policy A = WITH LOOKUP ( Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Consumption Goods, ([(-1,0)-(2,2)],(-1,0.0125),(-0.75,0.015),(-0.5,0.02),(-0.25,0.03),(0,0.05 ),(0.25,0.15),(0.5,0.35),(0.75,0.55),(1,0.75),(1.25,0.95),(1.5,1.15),(1.75 ,1.35),(2,1.55) )) Units: dmnl (245) Fraction for Import of Consumption Goods from policy B = WITH LOOKUP ( Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Consumption Goods, ([(-0.5,0)-(1,0.5)],(-0.5,0),(-0.25,0),(0,0.025),(0.25,0.05),(0.5,0.075 ),(0.75,0.1),(1,0.125) )) Units: dmnl (246) Fraction for Import of Food from policy A = WITH LOOKUP ( Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Food, ([(-1,0)-(1e+06,1e+06)],(0,0),(100000,100000),(200000,200000),(300000,300000 ),(400000,400000),(500000,500000),(600000,600000),(700000,700000),(800000, 800000),(900000,900000),(1e+06,1e+06) )) Units: dmnl (247) Fraction for Import of Food from policy B = WITH LOOKUP ( Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Food, ([(-1,0)-(5,1)],(-1,0),(-0.75,0),(-0.5,0),(-0.25,0),(0,0),(0.25,0.05),( 0.5,0.1),(0.75,0.15),(1,0.2),(1.25,0.25),(1.5,0.3),(1.75,0.35),(2,0.4),(2.25 ,0.45),(2.5,0.5),(2.75,0.55),(3,0.6),(3.25,0.65),(3.5,0.7),(3.75,0.75),(4, 0.8),(4.25,0.85),(4.5,0.9),(4.75,0.95),(5,1) )) Units: dmnl (248) Fraction for Import of Intermediate Goods from policy A = WITH LOOKUP ( Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Intermediate Goods, ([(-2,0)-(20,20)],(-2,0.2),(0,0.4),(2,2),(4,4),(6,6),(8,8),(10,10),(12, 12),(14,14),(16,16),(18,18),(20,20) )) Units: dmnl (249) Fraction for Import of Intermediate Goods from policy B = WITH LOOKUP ( Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Intermediate Goods, ([(-2,0)-(8,5)],(-2,0),(0,0),(2,0.125),(4,0.25),(6,0.375),(8,0.5) )) Units: dmnl (250) Fraction of Capital in Agriculture= Average Desired Capital in Agricultural Sector/(Average Desired Capital in Agricultural Sector +Average Desired Capital in Industrial Sector) Units: dmnl (251) Fraction of Decrease in Forreign Reserve = IF THEN ELSE( (Time<1979):OR:(Time>1989) , 0 , Fraction of Decrease in Forreign Reserve During War ) Units: dmnl (252) Fraction of Decrease in Forreign Reserve During War= 0.15 Units: dmnl (253) Fraction of Desired Capital Goods Import Policy= SMOOTH( Test of Capital Good Import Policy*Fraction for Import of Capital Goods from policy A +(1-Test of Capital Good Import Policy)*(Fraction for Import of Capital Goods from policy A /A) , 3 ) Units: dmnl (254) Fraction of Education in Agriculture= Average Desired Education in Agricultural Sector/(Average Desired Education in Agricultural Sector +Average Desired Education on Industrial Sector) Units: dmnl (255) Fraction of Import policy= IF THEN ELSE( (Time<1979) , 1 , 1.5 ) Units: dmnl (256) Fraction of Intermediate Goods Import Policy= SMOOTH( Test of Intermediate Goods Import Policy*Fraction for Import of Intermediate Goods from policy A +(1-Test of Intermediate Goods Import Policy)*(Fraction for Import of Intermediate Goods from policy A /A), 3 ) Units: dmnl (257) Fraction Of Investment In Capital Equipment= 0.317 Units: dmnl (258) Fraction of Investment in Energy Sector = WITH LOOKUP ( Desired Investment in Energy Sector/(Domestic Demand for Capital Investment ), ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0),(0.04,0.04),(0.08,0.08),(0.12,0.09),(0.16,0.095), (0.2,0.1) )) Units: dmnl (259) Fraction of Investment in Gas Production= 1-Fraction of Investment in Oil Exploration-Fraction of Investment in Oil Production Units: dmnl (260) Fraction of Investment in Oil Exploration= Desired Investment in Exploration/(Desired Investment in Energy Sector+1e-05 ) Units: dmnl (261) Fraction of Investment in Oil Production= (Desired Investment in Oil Production/(Desired Investment in Energy Sector +1e-05))*Switch for Policy Analysis in Investment Sector Units: dmnl (262) Fraction of Labor in Agriculture= Average Desired Labor in Agricultural Sector/(Average Desired Labor in Agricultural Sector +Average Desired Labor in Industrial Sector) Units: dmnl (263) Fraction of Minimum Gas Production= 0.06 Units: dmnl (264) Fraction of Production Capacity in Capital Good Sector= (Average Desired Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector)/(Average Desired Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector +Average Desired Production Capacity in Intermediate Good Sector+Average Desired Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector +Average Desired Production Capacity in Education) Units: dmnl (265) Fraction of Production Capacity in Consumption Good Sector= (Average Desired Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector)/(Average Desired Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector +Average Desired Production Capacity in Intermediate Good Sector+Average Desired Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector +Average Desired Production Capacity in Education) Units: dmnl (266) Fraction of Production Capacity in Education Sector= Average Desired Production Capacity in Education/(Average Desired Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector +Average Desired Production Capacity in Intermediate Good Sector+Average Desired Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector +Average Desired Production Capacity in Education) Units: dmnl (267) Fraction of Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector= (Average Desired Production Capacity in Intermediate Good Sector)/(Average Desired Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector +Average Desired Production Capacity in Intermediate Good Sector+Average Desired Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector +Average Desired Production Capacity in Education) Units: dmnl (268) Fraction Recoverable from Gas Injections= SMOOTH3(Effect of Gas Injection on Recovery Factor, Gas Injection Delay ) Units: dmnl (269) Fraction Recoverable from Technology= Minimum Fraction Recoverable+(Maximum Fraction Recoverable-Minimum Fraction Recoverable )*((Technology in Industrial Sector -1)/Technology in Industrial Sector ) Units: dmnl (270) Fraction Recoverable of Gas Injected to Oil Reserves= 0.85 Units: dmnl (271) Gas Demand Surplus= Domestic Gas Demand-(((1-Switch for Changing Gas Injection Policy)*Gas Production Rate )+(Switch for Changing Gas Injection Policy*(Gas Production Rate-Gas Injection ))) Units: million bbls/Year (272) Gas Export= INTEG ( Change in Gas Export, 0) Units: million bbls/Year (273) Gas Identified Resource Remaining= INTEG ( Additions to Gas Identified Resource+Gas Injected to Oil Reserves-Gas Production Rate , Initial Gas Identified Resource Remaining) Units: million bbls (274) Gas Import= Average Gas Import*Multiplier for Gas Import Units: million bbls/Year (275) Gas Industry Starting Delay= 10 Units: Year Gas Industry Starting Delay (276) Gas Industry Turning Point= SMOOTH3( IF THEN ELSE((Time<=1974), 0 , 1 ) , Gas Industry Starting Delay ) Units: dmnl (277) Gas Injected to Oil Reserves= Gas Injection*Fraction Recoverable of Gas Injected to Oil Reserves Units: million bbls/Year (278) Gas Injection= (1-Switch for Changing Gas Injection Policy)*(Gas Remaining After Consumption *Multiplier for Demand for Gas Injection)+(Switch for Changing Gas Injection Policy *Desired Gas Injection after Implementing New Policy) Units: million bbls/Year (279) Gas Injection at the End of the Year= INTEG ( Change in Gas Injection, 78) Units: million bbls/Year (280) Gas Injection Delay= 5 Units: Year (281) Gas Injection Required per Oil Output= Normal Gas Injection Required per Oil Output/(Normalized Productivity of Investment in Oil Production +0.0001) Units: dmnl (282) Gas Market Share= SMOOTH3I(Indicated Gas Market Share, Energy Substitution Delay , Initial Gas Market Share ) Units: dmnl (283) Gas Potential Production from Investment= (Productivity of Investment in Gas Production/1e+06)*SMOOTH3(Investment in Gas Production at the End of the Year , Energy Production Delay) Units: million bbls/Year (284) Gas Potential Production from Reserves= Total Gas Recoverable Resource Remaining/Normal Energy Resource to Production Ratio Units: million bbls/Year (285) Gas Price= IF THEN ELSE( Time<=2006 , Exogenouse Gas Price , Forecast Gas Price ) Units: million R/bbls (286) Gas Production= Effect of Investment on Gas Potential Production*Gas Potential Production from Reserves Units: million bbls/Year (287) Gas Production Rate= Gas Production+Minimum Gas Production Units: million bbls/Year (288) Gas Remaining After Consumption= MAX(0.0001,(Gas Production Rate-Domestic Gas Demand)) Units: million bbls/Year (289) Gas Revenues= Gas Export*Gas Price*1e+06 Units: million R/Year (290) Gas Undiscovered Resource= INTEG ( -Additions to Gas Identified Resource-Qatar's Gas Discovery, Initial Gas Undiscovered Resource) Units: million bbls (291) Good Availability Indicator= Fraction of Production Capacity in Capital Good Sector*Availability of Capital Goods +Fraction of Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector*Availability of Intermediate Goods +Fraction of Production Capacity in Consumption Good Sector*Availability of Consumption Goods +Fraction of Production Capacity in Education Sector*Availability of Enrollment Capacity Units: dmnl (292) Graph for Maximum Productivity of Investment in Oil Exploration= WITH LOOKUP ( Oil Undiscovered Resource/Initial Oil Undicovered Resource, ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0),(0.2,0.2),(0.4,0.4),(0.6,0.6),(0.8,0.8),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (293) Graph for Productivity of Investment in Gas Exploration = WITH LOOKUP ( Gas Undiscovered Resource/Initial Gas Undiscovered Resource, ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0),(0.2,0.2),(0.4,0.4),(0.6,0.6),(0.8,0.8),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (294) Graph for Productivity of Investment in Gas Production = WITH LOOKUP ( Gas Identified Resource Remaining/Initial Gas Identified Resource Remaining , ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0),(0.2,0.2),(0.4,0.4),(0.8,0.8),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (295) Graph for Productivity of Investment in Oil Production= WITH LOOKUP ( Oil Identified Resource Remaining/Initial Oil Identified Resource Remaining , ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0),(0.2,0.2),(0.4,0.4),(0.6,0.6),(0.8,0.8),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (296) Gross Domestic Product= (Non Oil Output)+Energy Export Value Units: million R/Year (297) Growth Domestic Product Per Capita= (Gross Domestic Product*1e+06)/Population Units: R/(Year*person) (298) Growth Rate in Urban Population= 0.018 Units: 1/Year (299) Import Delay= 1 Units: Year (300) Imported Capital Goods= Desired Import of Capital Goods*Multiplier for Import of Capital Goods from Foreign Exchange Availability Units: million R/Year (301) Imported Consumption Goods= Desired Import of Consumption Goods*Multiplier for Import of Consumption Goods from Foreign Exchange Availability Units: million R/Year (302) Imported Food= Desired Import of Food*Multiplier for Import of Food from Foreign Exchange Availability Units: million R/Year (303) Imported Food and Capital Goods= Imported Food+Imported Capital Goods Units: million R/Year (304) Imported Food and Capital Goods and Intermediate Goods= Imported Food and Capital Goods+Imported Intermediate Goods Units: million R/Year (305) Imported Intermediate Goods= Desired Import of Intermediate Goods*Multiplier for Import of Intermediate Goods from Foreign Exchange Availability Units: million R/Year (306) Increase in Gas Price= IF THEN ELSE(Time<=2015, 0 , Rate of Increase in Gas Price*Forecast Gas Price ) Units: million R/(Year*bbls) (307) Increase in Investment Security= (Indicated Investment Security-Investment Security)/Time to Increase Investment Security Units: 1/Year (308) Increase in Oil Price= IF THEN ELSE(Time<=2015, 0 , Rate of Increase in Oil Price*Forcast of Oil Price ) Units: **undefined** (309) Increase in Present Value= Energy Export Value/EXP(Market Interest Rate*(Time-INITIAL TIME)) Units: million R/Year (310) Indicated Gas Export= MAX(0, Gas Production Rate-Domestic Gas Demand-Gas Injection ) Units: million bbls/Year (311) Indicated Gas Import= ((1-Switch for Changing Energy Import Policy)*(MAX(0, Gas Demand Surplus) )*Multiplier for Import of Energy from Foreign Exchange Availability)+ (Switch for Changing Energy Import Policy *Multiplier For Energy Import Policy*(MAX(0, Gas Demand Surplus))*Multiplier for Import of Energy from Foreign Exchange Availability ) Units: million bbls/Year (312) Indicated Gas Market Share= ((1-Gas Industry Turning Point)*Fraction of Minimum Gas Production)+(Gas Industry Turning Point *Target Gas Market Share) Units: dmnl (313) Indicated Investment Security= Effect of Political Changes on Investment Security*Multiplier for Investment Security from Economic Condition Units: dmnl (314) Indicated Oil Export= MAX( 0 , Oil Production Rate-Domestic Oil Demand ) Units: million bbls/Year (315) Indicated Oil Import= ((1-Switch for Changing Energy Import Policy)*(MAX(0, Oil Demand Surplus) )*Multiplier for Import of Energy from Foreign Exchange Availability)+(Switch for Changing Energy Import Policy *Multiplier For Energy Import Policy*(MAX(0, Oil Demand Surplus))*Multiplier for Import of Energy from Foreign Exchange Availability ) Units: million bbls/Year (316) Industrial Output= Value Added in Consumption Goods Sector+Value Added in Capital Goods Sector +Output of Intermediate Goods Sector+Production Capacity in Education Sector Units: million R/Year (317) Industrial Output per Capita= Industrial Output/(Population/1e+06) Units: R/(Year*person) (318) Initial Cumulative Gas Production= 0 Units: million bbls (319) Initial Gas Identified Resource Remaining= 8000 Units: **undefined** (320) Initial Gas Market Share= 0.45 Units: dmnl (321) Initial Gas Undiscovered Resource= 612000 Units: million bbls (322) Initial Investment in Oil Production at the End of the Year= 8000 Units: **undefined** (323) Initial Oil Identified Resource Remaining= 140000 Units: million bbls (324) Initial Oil Undicovered Resource= 357000 Units: million bbls (325) INITIAL TIME = 1958 Units: Year The initial time for the simulation. (326) Intermediate Goods Value Added Ratio In Capital Goods Sector= 2 Units: dmnl (327) Intermediate Goods Value Added Ratio in Consumption Goods Sector = WITH LOOKUP ( ((Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector*1e+06)/Population), ([(0,0)-(4.34783e+06,1)],(0,0),(869566,0.18),(1.73913e+06,0.26),(2.6087e+06 ,0.3),(3.47826e+06,0.33),(4.34783e+06,0.35) )) Units: dmnl (328) Investment in Construction= Domestic Demand for Construction*Multiplier for Investment in Construction Units: million R/Year (329) Investment in Energy Sector= Domestic Demand for Capital Investment*Fraction of Investment in Energy Sector *(1+Investment Security) Units: million R/Year (330) Investment in Exploration= Fraction of Investment in Oil Exploration*Investment in Energy Sector Units: million R/Year (331) Investment in Gas Production= Investment in Energy Sector*Fraction of Investment in Gas Production Units: million R/Year (332) Investment in Gas Production at the End of the Year= INTEG ( Change in Investment in Gas Production, 0.0001) Units: million R/Year (333) "Investment in Non-Energy Sectors"= Domestic Demand for Capital Investment*(1-Fraction of Investment in Energy Sector ) Units: million R/Year (334) Investment in Oil Production= Investment in Energy Sector*Fraction of Investment in Oil Production Units: million R/Year (335) Investment in Oil Production at the End of the Year= INTEG ( Change in Investment in Oil Production, Initial Investment in Oil Production at the End of the Year) Units: million R/Year (336) Investment Security= INTEG ( Increase in Investment Security-Decrease in Investment Security, 0.6) Units: dmnl (337) Labor Force= Adult Population*Ratio Of Labor Force To Adult Population Units: persons (338) Labor in Agricultural Sector= Fraction of Labor in Agriculture*Labor Force Units: persons (339) Labor in Industrial Sector= (1-Fraction of Labor in Agriculture)*Labor Force Units: persons (340) Land Labor Ratio Normal= 2.52 Units: Hectars/person (341) Life Of Capital= 25 Units: Year (342) Marginal Productivity of Capital in Agricultural Sector= (Exponent Of Capital In Agricultural Production Function/Capital in Agricultural Sector )*Food Output Units: million R/Year (343) Marginal Productivity of Capital in Industrial Sector= (Exponent Of Capital In Industrial Production Function/Capital in Industrial Sector )*Industrial Output Units: 1/Year (344) Marginal Productivity of Education in Agricultural Sector= (Exponent Of Education In Agricultural Production Function/Education in Agricultural Sector )*Food Output Units: million bbls/Year/Thousand man year of schooling (345) Marginal Productivity of Education in Industrial Sector= (Exponent Of Education In Industrial Production Function/Education in Industrial Sector )*Industrial Output Units: million bbls/(Year*Thousand man year of schooling) (346) Marginal Productivity of Labor in Agricultural Sector= (Exponent Of Labor In Agricultural Production Function/Labor in Agricultural Sector )*Food Output Units: million R/(Year*persons) (347) Marginal Productivity of Labor in Industrial Sector= (Exponent Of Labor In Industrial Production Function/Labor in Industrial Sector )*Industrial Output Units: million R/(Year*persons) (348) Marginal Utility From Food Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Food Availability, ([(0,0)-(2.5,40)],(0,30),(0.25,10),(0.5,4),(0.75,1.8),(1,1),(1.25,0.7),( 1.5,0.5),(1.75,0.35),(2,0.25),(2.25,0.2),(2.5,0.18) )) Units: Utility/million R of Food/Year (349) Marginal Utility from Good Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Good Availability Indicator, ([(0,0)-(2.5,10)],(0,2.5),(0.5,1.5),(1,1),(1.5,0.8),(2,0.65),(2.5,0.6) ) ) Units: Utility/(Year*million R of Goods) (350) Marginal Utility of Capital in Agricultural Sector= Marginal Utility From Food Availability*Marginal Productivity of Capital in Agricultural Sector Units: Utility/million R (351) Marginal Utility of Capital in Industrial Sector= Marginal Utility from Good Availability*Marginal Productivity of Capital in Industrial Sector Units: Utility/million R (352) Marginal Utility of Education in Agricultural Sector= Marginal Utility From Food Availability*Marginal Productivity of Education in Agricultural Sector Units: Utility/Thousand man year of schooling (353) Marginal Utility of Education in Industrial Sector= Marginal Utility from Good Availability*Marginal Productivity of Education in Industrial Sector Units: Utility/Thousand man year of schooling (354) Marginal Utility of Labor in Agricultural Sector= Marginal Utility From Food Availability*Marginal Productivity of Labor in Agricultural Sector Units: Utility/persons (355) Marginal Utility of Labor in Idustrial Sector= Marginal Utility from Good Availability*Marginal Productivity of Labor in Industrial Sector Units: Utility/persons (356) Market Effect Coefficient= 0.5 Units: dmnl (357) Market Effect Coefficient For Capital Goods= 0.5 Units: dmnl (358) Market Effect For Intermedite Goods= 0.5 Units: dmnl (359) Market Interest Rate= 0.05 Units: 1/Year (360) Maximum Fraction Recoverable= 0.8 Units: dmnl (361) Maximum Productivity of Investment in Gas Exploration= 7000 Units: bbls/million R (362) Maximum Productivity of Investment in Gas Production= Normal Productivity of Investment in Gas Production*Graph for Productivity of Investment in Gas Production Units: bbls/million R (363) Maximum Productivity of Investment in Oil Exploration= 9000 Units: bbls/million R (364) Maximum Productivity of Investment in Oil Production= Normal Productivity of Investment in Oil Production*Graph for Productivity of Investment in Oil Production Units: bbls/million R (365) Minimum Fraction Recoverable= 0.2 Units: dmnl (366) Minimum Gas Production= Oil Production Rate*Fraction of Minimum Gas Production Units: million bbls/Year (367) Multiplier for Birth Rate from Education = WITH LOOKUP ( (School Years per Adult Population/Normal School Year Per Adult Population ), ([(0,0)-(5,2)],(0,1.3),(1,1),(2,0.85),(3,0.75),(4,0.68),(5,0.65) )) Units: dmnl (368) Multiplier for Birth Rate from Food = WITH LOOKUP ( (Food per Capita/Normal Food Per Capita), ([(0,0)-(2.5,2)],(0,0),(0.5,0.7),(1,1),(1.5,1.15),(2,1.22),(2.5,1.25) )) Units: dmnl (369) Multiplier for Birth Rate from Industrialization = WITH LOOKUP ( (Industrial Output per Capita/Normal Industrial Output Per Capita), ([(0,0)-(5,2)],(0,1.4),(1,1),(2,0.7725),(3,0.6375),(4,0.5625),(5,0.5) ) ) Units: dmnl (370) Multiplier for Capital in Agricultural Sector = WITH LOOKUP ( Utility of Capital Ratio in Agriculture, ([(0,0)-(5,10)],(0,0),(1,1),(2,1.8),(3,2.4),(4,2.8),(5,3) )) Units: dmnl (371) Multiplier for Capital in Industrial Sector = WITH LOOKUP ( Utility of Capital Ratio in Industry, ([(0,0)-(5,10)],(0,0),(1,1),(2,1.8),(3,2.4),(4,2.8),(5,3) )) Units: dmnl (372) Multiplier for Death Rate from Food = WITH LOOKUP ( (Food per Capita/Normal Food Per Capita), ([(0,0)-(2,35)],(0,30),(0.25,3),(0.5,2),(0.75,1.3),(1,1),(1.25,0.85),(1.5 ,0.78),(1.75,0.72),(2,0.7) )) Units: dmnl (373) Multiplier for Death Rate from Industrialization = WITH LOOKUP ( (Industrial Output per Capita/Normal Industrial Output Per Capita), ([(0,0)-(5,3)],(0,2),(1,1),(2,0.8),(3,0.7),(4,0.65),(5,0.65) )) Units: dmnl (374) Multiplier for Demand for Construction from Availability of Capital Goods = WITH LOOKUP ( Availability of Capital Goods, ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0.2),(0.2,0.3),(0.4,0.45),(0.6,0.7),(0.8,0.9),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (375) Multiplier for Demand for Gas Injection= WITH LOOKUP ( Desired Gas Injection/(Gas Remaining After Consumption+1e-06), ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0),(0.2,0.2),(0.4,0.4),(0.6,0.45),(0.8,0.48),(1,0.5) )) Units: dmnl (376) Multiplier for Desired Gas Production = WITH LOOKUP ( SMOOTH(Gas Production Rate, Time to Establish Desired Energy Production ) /Gas Potential Production from Reserves, ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0),(0.2,0.2),(0.4,0.4),(0.6,0.6),(0.8,0.8),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (377) Multiplier for Desired Oil Production = WITH LOOKUP ( (SMOOTH( Oil Production Rate , Time to Establish Desired Energy Production )/Oil Potential Production from Reserves) , ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0),(0.2,0.2),(0.4,0.4),(0.6,0.6),(0.8,0.8),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (378) Multiplier for Education in Agricultural Sector = WITH LOOKUP ( Utility of Education Ratio in Agriculture, ([(0,0)-(5,10)],(0,0),(1,0.8),(2,1.5),(3,2),(4,2.3),(5,2.5) )) Units: dmnl (379) Multiplier for Education in Industrial Sector = WITH LOOKUP ( Utility of Education Ratio in Industry, ([(0,0)-(5,10)],(0,0),(1,1.25),(2,2.2),(3,2.9),(4,3.3),(5,3.5) )) Units: dmnl (380) Multiplier For Energy Import Policy= 1 Units: dmnl (381) Multiplier for Export from Desired Export for Capital Goods = WITH LOOKUP ( (Desired Export of Capital Goods/Average Export of Capital Goods), ([(0,0)-(1.4,2)],(0,0),(0.2,0.35),(0.4,0.6),(0.6,0.75),(0.8,0.88),(1,1), (1.2,1.1),(1.4,1.1) )) Units: dmnl (382) Multiplier for Export from Desired Export for Consumption Goods = WITH LOOKUP ( (Desired Export of Consumption Goods/Average Export of Consumption Goods) , ([(0,0)-(1.4,2)],(0,0),(0.2,0.35),(0.4,0.6),(0.6,0.75),(0.8,0.88),(1,1), (1.2,1.1),(1.4,1.1) )) Units: dmnl (383) Multiplier for Export from Desired Export for Food = WITH LOOKUP ( (Desired Export of Food/Average Export of Food), ([(0,0)-(1.4,1.5)],(0,0),(0.2,0.35),(0.4,0.6),(0.6,0.75),(0.8,0.88),(1,1 ),(1.2,1.1),(1.4,1.1) )) Units: dmnl (384) Multiplier for Export from Desired Export for Intermediate Goods = WITH LOOKUP ( (Desired Export of Intermediate Goods/Average Export of Intermediate Goods ), ([(0,0)-(1.4,2)],(0,0),(0.2,0.35),(0.4,0.6),(0.6,0.75),(0.8,0.88),(1,1), (1.2,1.1),(1.4,1.1) )) Units: dmnl (385) Multiplier for Export from Foreign Exchange Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Foreign Exchange Availability Indicator, ([(0,0)-(2.5,2)],(0,1.5),(0.5,1.3),(1,1),(1.5,0.8),(2,0.65),(2.5,0.6) ) ) Units: dmnl (386) Multiplier for Food Output per Laborer from Oil Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Energy Availability Indicator, ([(0,1)-(1,10)],(0,0.5),(0.03,0.58),(0.06,0.7),(0.12,0.95),(0.15,1),(0.09 ,0.85) )) Units: dmnl (387) Multiplier for Food Output per Laborer from Oil Availability 0 = WITH LOOKUP ( Energy Availability Indicator, ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0.5),(0.03,0.58),(0.06,0.7),(0.09,0.85),(0.12,0.95), (0.15,1) )) Units: dmnl Multiplier for Food Output per Laborer from Oil Availability EAI:Energy Availability Indicator (388) Multiplier for Gas Import = WITH LOOKUP ( Indicated Gas Import/Average Gas Import, ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0),(0.4,0.4),(0.8,0.8),(1.2,1.1),(1.6,1.3),(2,1.4) ) ) Units: dmnl (389) Multiplier for Import of Capital Goods from Foreign Exchange Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Foreign Exchange Availability Indicator, ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0),(0.25,0.45),(0.5,0.75),(0.75,0.9),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (390) Multiplier for Import of Consumption Goods from Foreign Exchange Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Foreign Exchange Availability Indicator, ([(0,0)-(2.5,2)],(0,0),(0.5,0.6),(1,1),(1.5,1.35),(2,1.6),(2.5,1.75) )) Units: dmnl (391) Multiplier for Import of Energy from Foreign Exchange Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Foreign Exchange Availability Indicator , ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0),(0.25,0.45),(0.5,0.7),(0.75,0.9),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (392) Multiplier for Import of Food from Foreign Exchange Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Foreign Exchange Availability Indicator, ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0),(0.25,0.45),(0.5,0.7),(0.75,0.9),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (393) Multiplier for Import of Intermediate Goods from Foreign Exchange Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Foreign Exchange Availability Indicator, ([(0,0)-(1,1)],(0,0),(0.25,0.45),(0.5,0.75),(0.75,0.9),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (394) Multiplier for Investment in Construction = WITH LOOKUP ( Availability of Consumption Goods, ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0),(0.25,0.25),(0.5,0.5),(0.75,0.75),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (395) Multiplier for Investment Security from Economic Condition = WITH LOOKUP ( Economic Growth Rate, ([(-0.2,0)-(10,10)],(-0.15,0),(-0.12,0.002),(-0.09,0.015),(-0.06,0.025) ,(-0.03,0.045),(0,0.1),(0.03,0.2),(0.06,0.4),(0.09,0.6),(0.12,0.8),(0.15,1 ) )) Units: dmnl (396) Multiplier for Labor in Agricultural Sector = WITH LOOKUP ( Utility of Labor Ratio in Agriculture, ([(0,0)-(5,5)],(0,0),(1,1),(2,1.8),(3,2.4),(4,2.8),(5,3) )) Units: dmnl (397) Multiplier for Labor in Industrial Sector = WITH LOOKUP ( Utility of Labor Ratio in Industry, ([(0,0)-(5,10)],(0,0),(1,1),(2,1.8),(3,2.4),(4,2.8),(5,3) )) Units: dmnl (398) Multiplier for Oil Import = WITH LOOKUP ( Indicated Oil Import/Average Oil Import, ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0),(0.4,0.4),(0.8,0.8),(1.2,1.1),(1.6,1.3),(2,1.4) ) ) Units: dmnl (399) Multiplier for Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector from Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Availability Indicator for Capital Goods, ([(0,0)-(2,4)],(0,2.6),(0.25,2.4),(0.5,2),(0.75,1.45),(1,1),(1.25,0.8),( 1.5,0.7),(1.75,0.64),(2,0.6) )) Units: dmnl (400) Multiplier for Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector from Capacity Utilization = WITH LOOKUP ( Utilization Factor in Capital Goods Sector, ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0),(0.2,0.4),(0.4,0.7),(0.6,0.85),(0.8,0.95),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (401) Multiplier for Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector from Productivity = WITH LOOKUP ( Productivity Ratio in Capital Good Sector, ([(0,0)-(3,3)],(0,0),(0.5,0.6),(1,1),(1.5,1.3),(2,1.55),(2.5,1.7),(3,1.8 ) )) Units: dmnl (402) Multiplier for Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector from Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Availability Indicator for Consumption Goods, ([(0,0)-(2,3)],(0,2.6),(0.25,2.4),(0.5,2),(0.75,1.45),(1,1),(1.25,0.8),( 1.5,0.7),(1.75,0.64),(2,0.6) )) Units: dmnl (403) Multiplier for Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector from Capacity Utilization = WITH LOOKUP ( Utilization Factor in Consumption Goods Sector, ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0),(0.2,0.4),(0.4,0.7),(0.6,0.85),(0.8,0.95),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (404) Multiplier for Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector from Productivity = WITH LOOKUP ( Productivity Ratio in Consumption Goods Sector, ([(0,0)-(3,3)],(0,0),(0.5,0.6),(1,1),(1.5,1.3),(2,1.55),(2.5,1.7),(3,1.8 ) )) Units: dmnl (405) Multiplier for Production Capacity in Education from Availability= (Test of Educational Expansion Policy*Multiplier for Production Capacity in Education from Availability at Policy A )+((1-Test of Educational Expansion Policy)*Multiplier for Production Capacity in Education from Availability at Policy B ) Units: dmnl (406) Multiplier for Production Capacity in Education from Availability at Policy A = WITH LOOKUP ( Availability of Enrollment Capacity, ([(0,0)-(2,2)],(0,1.55),(0.25,1.5),(0.5,1.4),(0.75,1.25),(1,1),(1.25,0.8 ),(1.5,0.7),(1.75,0.64),(2,0.6) )) Units: dmnl (407) Multiplier for Production Capacity in Education from Availability at Policy B = WITH LOOKUP ( Availability of Enrollment Capacity, ([(0,0)-(2,3)],(0,2.6),(0.25,2.4),(0.5,2),(0.75,1.45),(1,1),(1.25,0.8),( 1.5,0.7),(1.75,0.64),(2,0.6) )) Units: dmnl (408) Multiplier for Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector from Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Availability Indicator for Intermediate Goods, ([(0,0)-(2,3)],(0,2.6),(0.25,2.4),(0.5,2),(0.75,1.45),(1,1),(1.25,0.8),( 1.5,0.7),(1.75,0.64),(2,0.6) )) Units: dmnl (409) Multiplier for Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector from Capacity Utilization = WITH LOOKUP ( Utilization Factor in Intermediate Goods Sector from Demand, ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0),(0.2,0.4),(0.4,0.7),(0.6,0.85),(0.8,0.95),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (410) Multiplier for Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector from Productivity = WITH LOOKUP ( Productivity Ratio in Intermediate Goods Sector, ([(0,0)-(3,1.8)],(0,0),(0.5,0.6),(1,1),(1.5,1.3),(2,1.55),(2.5,1.7),(3,1.8 ) )) Units: dmnl (411) Multiplier for Production Capacity per Laborer in Industry from Oil 0 = WITH LOOKUP ( Energy Availability Indicator, ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0.2),(0.03,0.3),(0.06,0.45),(0.09,0.78),(0.12,0.925) ,(0.15,1) )) Units: dmnl Multiplier for Production Capacity per Laborer in Industry from Oil Availability EAI: Energy Availability Indicator (412) Multiplier for Production Capacity per Laborer in Industry from Oil Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Energy Availability Indicator, ([(0,0)-(10,10)],(0,0.2),(0.03,0.3),(0.06,0.45),(0.09,0.78),(0.12,0.925) ,(0.15,1) )) Units: dmnl (413) Multiplier for Technology Transfer from Education in Agriculture = WITH LOOKUP ( Technology Normal to Technology in Agricultural Sector, ([(0,0)-(2.5,2)],(0,0),(0.5,0.6),(1,1),(1.5,1.3),(2,1.5),(2.5,1.6) )) Units: dmnl (414) Multiplier for Technology Transfer from Education in Industry = WITH LOOKUP ( Technology Normal to Technology in Industry, ([(0,0)-(2.5,2)],(0,0),(0.5,0.6),(1,1),(1.5,1.3),(2,1.5),(2.5,1.6) )) Units: dmnl (415) Multiplier for Technology Transfer From Foreign Trade = WITH LOOKUP ( (Foreign Trade Ratio/Foreign Trade Ratio Normal), ([(0,0)-(3,2)],(0,0.25),(0.5,0.65),(1,1),(1.5,1.2),(2,1.35),(2.5,1.45),( 3,1.5) )) Units: dmnl (416) Multiplier for Technology Transfer From Foreign Trade in Agriculture = WITH LOOKUP ( (Foreign Trade Ratio/Foreign Trade Ratio Normal), ([(0,0)-(3,2)],(0,0.25),(0.5,0.65),(1,1),(1.5,1.2),(2,1.35),(2.5,1.45),( 3,1.5) )) Units: dmnl (417) Non Oil Exports= Exported Food+Exported Intermediate Goods+Exported Consumption Goods+Exported Capital Goods Units: million R/Year (418) Non Oil Output= (Value Added in Consumption Goods Sector+Output of Intermediate Goods Sector +Value Added in Capital Goods Sector+Food Output+Production Capacity in Education Sector ) Units: million R/Year (419) Non Oil Output Per Capita= (Non Oil Output*1e+06)/Population Units: R/(Year*person) (420) Non Oil Output Per Capita Normal= 500000 Units: R/(Year*person) (421) Normal Birth Rate= 0.1 Units: persons/Year/person (422) Normal Death Rate Of Adult Population = 0.0141 Units: person/Year/person (423) Normal Death Rate Of PreSchool Age Children= 0.036 Units: persons/Year/person (424) Normal Death Rate Of School Age Children= 0.0025 Units: persons/Year/person (425) Normal Energy Resource to Production Ratio= 20 Units: Year (426) Normal Food Per Capita= 1.2e+06 Units: R/(Year*person) (427) Normal Foreign Exchange Coverage Time = 0.25 Units: Year Normal Foreign Exchange Coverage Time (428) Normal Gas Injection Required per Oil Output= 0.26 Units: dmnl (429) Normal Growth Rate in Energy Revenues= 0.2 Units: 1/Year (430) Normal Industrial Output Per Capita = 1.21527e+06 Units: R/(Year*person) (431) Normal Productivity of Investment in Gas Production= 35000 Units: bbls/million R (432) Normal Productivity of Investment in Oil Production= 45000 Units: bbls/million R (433) Normal School Year Per Adult Population= 1.21 Units: Years Of Schooling/person (434) Normal Time to Catch Up in Agricultural Technology= LN(Technology Ratio in Agricultural Sector)/(Rate Of Technological Progress In Agriculture *Coefficient For Technological Progress Through Transfer) Units: Year (435) Normal Time to Catch Up in Industrial Technology= LN(Technology Ratio in Industrial Sector)/(Rate Of Technological Progress In Industry *Coefficient For Technological Progress Through Transfer) Units: Year (436) Normalized Productivity of Investment in Oil Production= Productivity of Investment in Oil Production/Normal Productivity of Investment in Oil Production Units: dmnl (437) Number of Students= Number of Students 1+Number of Students 2+Number of Students 3 Units: persons (438) Number of Students 1= INTEG ( Admission Rate-Termination Rate 1, 841901) Units: persons (439) Number of Students 2= INTEG ( Termination Rate 1-Termination Rate 2, 841901) Units: persons (440) Number of Students 3= INTEG ( Termination Rate 2-Termination Rate 3, 841901) Units: persons (441) Oil Demand Surplus= Domestic Oil Demand-Oil Production Rate Units: million bbls/Year (442) Oil Export= INTEG ( Change in Oil Export, 250) Units: million bbls/Year (443) Oil Identified Resource Remaining= INTEG ( Additions to Oil Identified Resource-Oil Production Rate, Initial Oil Identified Resource Remaining) Units: million bbls (444) Oil Import= Average Oil Import*Multiplier for Oil Import Units: million bbls/Year (445) Oil Potential Production from Investment= (Productivity of Investment in Oil Production/1e+06)*SMOOTH3(Investment in Oil Production at the End of the Year , Energy Production Delay )*Effect of War on Oil Production Units: million bbls/Year (446) Oil Potential Production from Reserves= Total Oil Recoverable Resource Remaining/Normal Energy Resource to Production Ratio Units: million bbls/Year (447) Oil Price= Oil Price Forecast(Time) Units: million R/bbls (448) Oil Price Forecast( [(2007,0)-(2050,200)],(1958,0.00022575),(1959,0.0002175),(1960,0.000216), (1961,0.00021675),(1962,0.0002175),(1963,0.00021675),(1964,0.000216),(1965 ,0.0002145),(1966,0.000216),(1967,0.000219),(1968,0.0002205),(1969,0.00023175 ),(1970,0.0002385),(1971,0.000339),(1972,0.000339),(1973,0.000389),(1974,0.000687 ),(1975,0.000767),(1976,0.000819),(1977,0.000857),(1978,0.0009),(1979,0.001264 ),(1980,0.0030226),(1981,0.006354),(1982,0.0077004),(1983,0.0091665),(1984 ,0.011646),(1985,0.0139722),(1986,0.00769365),(1987,0.0114884),(1988,0.0125297 ),(1989,0.0153208),(1990,0.0193656),(1991,0.019421),(1992,0.0237723),(1993 ,0.0324142),(1994,0.0376225),(1995,0.0563504),(1996,0.0900162),(1997,0.0953969 ),(1998,0.0649368),(1999,0.120835),(2000,0.253819),(2001,0.233586),(2002,0.303265 ),(2003,0.411897),(2004,0.669304),(2005,1.06912),(2006,1.40272),(2007,1.87369 ),(2008,3.10794),(2009,1.93064),(2010,2.93029),(2011,4.55388),(2012,5.76619 ),(2013,9.18415),(2014,11.8829),(2015,13.4043),(2016,15.6085),(2017,18.2235 ),(2018,24.8094),(2019,33.7835),(2020,51.3749),(2021,82.2512),(2022,120.64 ),(2023,129.029),(2024,137.869),(2025,147.114),(2026,156.71),(2027,166.595 ),(2028,177.17),(2029,187.995),(2030,198.96),(2031,209.975),(2032,220.93), (2033,231.725),(2034,242.245),(2035,252.384),(2036,262.027),(2037,271.08), (2038,279.432),(2039,286.997),(2040,293.706),(2041,299.481),(2042,304.287) ,(2043,308.077),(2044,310.839),(2045,312.569),(2046,313.278),(2047,312.995 ),(2048,311.768),(2049,309.637),(2050,306.678)) Units: million R/bbls (449) Oil Production= Oil Potential Production from Reserves*Effect of Investment on Oil Potential Production Units: million bbls/Year (450) Oil Production Rate= Oil Production*Effect of War on Oil Production Units: million bbls/Year (451) Oil Revenues= Oil Export*Oil Price*1e+06 Units: million R/Year (452) Oil Undiscovered Resource= INTEG ( -Additions to Oil Identified Resource, Initial Oil Undicovered Resource) Units: million bbls (453) Output of Capital Goods Sector= Value Added in Capital Goods Sector*(1+Intermediate Goods Value Added Ratio In Capital Goods Sector ) Units: million R/Year (454) Output of Consumption Goods Sector= Value Added in Consumption Goods Sector*(1+Intermediate Goods Value Added Ratio in Consumption Goods Sector ) Units: million R/Year (455) Output of Intermediate Goods Sector= Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector*Utilization Factor in Intermediate Goods Sector from Demand Units: million R/Year (456) Policy Factor for Decreasing Oil Investment Share= 1 Units: dmnl (457) Policy Level for Gas Injection= 0 Units: dmnl (458) Political Condition Indicator= 0.3 Units: dmnl (459) Population= Adult Population+School Age Children+Pre School Age Children Units: persons (460) Potential Duration of School Age Period = WITH LOOKUP ( Duration of Education, ([(0,0)-(16,20)],(0,8),(8,8),(16,16) )) Units: Year (461) Potential Food Output= Food Output Production Function Constant*(Labor in Agricultural Sector^Exponent Of Labor In Agricultural Production Function )*(Capital in Agricultural Sector^Exponent Of Capital In Agricultural Production Function )*(Education in Agricultural Sector^Exponent Of Education In Agricultural Production Function )*Technology in Agricultural Sector Units: million R/Year (462) Potential Food Output per Laborer= (Potential Food Output/Labor in Agricultural Sector)*1e+06 Units: R/(Year*person) (463) Potential Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector= Fraction of Production Capacity in Capital Good Sector*Production Capacity in Industrial Sector Units: million R/Year (464) Potential Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector= Fraction of Production Capacity in Consumption Good Sector*Production Capacity in Industrial Sector Units: million R/Year (465) Potential Production Capacity in Industrial Sector= Production Capacity In Industrial Sector Constant*(POWER(Labor in Industrial Sector , Exponent Of Labor In Industrial Production Function ))*(POWER(Capital in Industrial Sector , Exponent Of Capital In Industrial Production Function ))*(POWER(Education in Industrial Sector , Exponent Of Education In Industrial Production Function ))*Technology in Industrial Sector Units: million R/Year (466) Potential Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector= Fraction of Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector*Production Capacity in Industrial Sector Units: million R/Year (467) Potential Production Capacity per Laborer in Industrial Sector= (Potential Production Capacity in Industrial Sector/Labor in Industrial Sector )*1e+06 Units: million R/(Year*person) (468) Pre School Age Children= INTEG ( Birth Rate-Date Rate of Pre School Age Children-Flow of Pre School to School Age Children , 5.221e+06) Units: persons (469) primary Capital Formation= INTEG ( Raise of Capital Formation-Capital Formation, Raise of Capital Formation*Delay For Capital Formation) Units: million R (470) Primitive Food Output per Laborer= Primitive Food Output per Laborer Multiplier*Primitive Food Output Per Laborer Normal Units: R/(Year*person) (471) Primitive Food Output per Laborer Multiplier = WITH LOOKUP ( ((Agricultural Land/Labor in Agricultural Sector)/Land Labor Ratio Normal ), ([(0,0)-(2,2)],(0,0),(0.5,0.6),(1,1),(1.5,1.2),(2,1.3) )) Units: dmnl (472) Primitive Food Output Per Laborer Normal= 2.6087e+06 Units: R/(Year*person) (473) Primitive Production Capacity Per Laborer In Industrial Sector= 2.6087e+06 Units: R/(Year*person) (474) Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector= Potential Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector*Productivity in Capital Goods Sector Units: million R/Year (475) Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector= Potential Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector*Productivity in Consumption Goods Sector Units: million R/Year (476) Production Capacity in Education Sector= Fraction of Production Capacity in Education Sector*Production Capacity in Industrial Sector Units: million R/Year (477) Production Capacity in Industrial Sector= (Labor in Industrial Sector*Production Capacity per Laborer in Industry)/ 1e+06 Units: million R/Year (478) Production Capacity In Industrial Sector Constant= 22 Units: million R/Year (479) Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector= Potential Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector*Productivity in Intermediate Goods Sector Units: million R/Year (480) Production Capacity per Enrollment Capacity= Production Capacity per Enrollment Capacity from Duration of Education*(Non Oil Output Per Capita /Non Oil Output Per Capita Normal) Units: million R/Year/student (481) Production Capacity per Enrollment Capacity from Duration of Education = WITH LOOKUP ( Duration of Education, ([(0,0)-(16,2e+06)],(0,782609),(4,826087),(8,913043),(12,1.08696e+06),( 16,1.3913e+06) )) Units: million R/(Year*student) (482) Production Capacity per Laborer in Industry= Multiplier for Production Capacity per Laborer in Industry from Oil Availability *(Potential Production Capacity per Laborer in Industrial Sector-Primitive Production Capacity Per Laborer In Industrial Sector )+Primitive Production Capacity Per Laborer In Industrial Sector Units: R/(Year*person) (483) Productivity in Capital Goods Sector = WITH LOOKUP ( Experience Indicator in Capital Goods Sector, ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0),(0.2,0.45),(0.4,0.7),(0.6,0.85),(0.8,0.95),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (484) Productivity in Consumption Goods Sector = WITH LOOKUP ( Experience Indicator in Consumption Goods Sector, ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0),(0.2,0.45),(0.4,0.7),(0.6,0.85),(0.8,0.95),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (485) Productivity in Intermediate Goods Sector = WITH LOOKUP ( Experience Indicator in Intermediate Goods Sector, ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0),(0.2,0.45),(0.4,0.7),(0.6,0.85),(0.8,0.95),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (486) Productivity of Investment in Gas Exploration= Maximum Productivity of Investment in Gas Exploration*Graph for Productivity of Investment in Gas Exploration Units: bbls/million R (487) Productivity of Investment in Gas Production= Maximum Productivity of Investment in Gas Production*Effect of Technology on Gas Production Units: bbls/million R (488) Productivity of Investment in Oil Exploration= Maximum Productivity of Investment in Oil Exploration*Graph for Maximum Productivity of Investment in Oil Exploration Units: bbls/million R (489) Productivity of Investment in Oil Production= Maximum Productivity of Investment in Oil Production*Effect of Technology on Oil Production Units: bbls/million R (490) Productivity Ratio in Capital Good Sector= Productivity in Capital Goods Sector/Average Productivity in Industrial Sector Units: **undefined** (491) Productivity Ratio in Consumption Goods Sector= Productivity in Consumption Goods Sector/Average Productivity in Industrial Sector Units: dmnl (492) Productivity Ratio in Intermediate Goods Sector= Productivity in Intermediate Goods Sector/Average Productivity in Industrial Sector Units: dmnl (493) Qatar's Cumulative Gas Production= INTEG ( Qatar's Gas Production, 0) Units: million bbls (494) Qatar's Gas Discovery= Qatar's Gas Discovery Growth Rate*Gas Undiscovered Resource Units: million bbls/Year (495) Qatar's Gas Discovery Growth Rate= "Constant for Qatar's Discovery no.1"*EXP("Constant for Qatar's Discovery no.2" *(Time-1958)) Units: 1/Year (496) Qatar's Gas Identified Resource Remaining= INTEG ( Qatar's Gas Discovery-Qatar's Gas Production, 5000) Units: million bbls (497) Qatar's Gas Production= Qatar's Gas Production Growth Rate*Gas Industry Turning Point*Qatar's Gas Identified Resource Remaining Units: million bbls/Year (498) Qatar's Gas Production Growth Rate= "Constant for Qatar's Production no.1"*EXP("Constant for Qatar's Production no.2" *(Time-1958)) Units: **undefined** (499) Raise of Capital Formation= (Investment in Construction+Total Capital Goods)*Investment Security Units: 1/Year (500) Rate of Decrease in Gas Price= 0.01313 Units: 1/Year (501) Rate of Increase in Gas Price= 0.01177 Units: 1/Year (502) Rate of Increase in Oil Price= 0.01004 Units: **undefined** (503) Rate of Increase of Education= (Termination Rate 3*Effect of Universities' Cultural Revolution on Education *Death Rate*(1-Drop Out Ratio))/1000 Units: Thousand man year of schooling/Years (504) Rate Of Technological Progress In Agriculture= 0.01 Units: Technology/Year (505) Rate Of Technological Progress In Industry= 0.0137 Units: Technology/Year (506) Rate of Transfer of Technology in Agricultural Sector= ((Technology in Agricultural Sector of Advanced Countries-Technology in Agricultural Sector )/Normal Time to Catch Up in Agricultural Technology)*Multiplier for Technology Transfer From Foreign Trade in Agriculture *Multiplier for Technology Transfer from Education in Agriculture*Effect of War on Production Capacity *Effect of War constant Units: Technology/Year (507) Rate of Transfer of Technology in Industry= ((Technology in Industrial Sector of Advanced Countries-Technology in Industrial Sector )/Normal Time to Catch Up in Industrial Technology)*Multiplier for Technology Transfer From Foreign Trade *Multiplier for Technology Transfer from Education in Industry*Effect of War on Production Capacity *Effect of War constant Units: Technology/Year (508) Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Capital Goods= Demand Output Discrepancy for Capital Goods/Output of Capital Goods Sector Units: dmnl (509) Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Consumption Goods= Demand Output Discrepancy for Consumption Goods/Output of Consumption Goods Sector Units: dmnl (510) Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Food= Demand Output Discrepancy for Food/Food Output Units: dmnl (511) Ratio of Demand Output Discrepancy to Output for Intermediate Goods= Demand Output Discrepancy for Intermediate Goods/Output of Intermediate Goods Sector Units: dmnl (512) Ratio of Gas Production from Reserve to Gas Production from= Gas Potential Production from Reserves/(Gas Potential Production from Investment ) Units: dmnl (513) Ratio Of Labor Force To Adult Population= 0.56 Units: dmnl (514) Ratio of Oil Production from Reserve to Oil Production from= Oil Potential Production from Reserves/(Oil Potential Production from Investment +0.0001) Units: dmnl (515) RDOP= 0.01437 Units: **undefined** (516) Recovery Factor= (Fraction Recoverable from Technology+Fraction Recoverable from Gas Injections )/2 Units: dmnl (517) Reduction of Education= Education*Normal Death Rate Of Adult Population*Multiplier for Death Rate from Food *Multiplier for Death Rate from Industrialization Units: Thousand man year of schooling/Years (518) SAVEPER = TIME STEP Units: Year [0,?] The frequency with which output is stored. (519) School Age Children= INTEG ( Flow of Pre School to School Age Children-Death Rate of School Age Children -Flow of School Age to Adult Population, 3.957e+06) Units: persons (520) School Years per Adult Population= (Education*1000)/Adult Population Units: Man Years of Schooling/person (521) School Years Per Industrial Laborer Of Advanced Countries = 12 Units: Years Of Schooling/person (522) School Years Per Labor In Agricultural Sector Of Advanced Countries = 8 Units: Years Of Schooling/person (523) School Years per Laborer in Agricultural Sector= (Education in Agricultural Sector*1000)/Labor in Agricultural Sector Units: Years Of Schooling/person (524) School Years per Laborer in Industry= (1000*Education in Industrial Sector)/Labor in Industrial Sector Units: Years Of Schooling/person (525) Signal for Investment in Exploration from Energy Production= IF THEN ELSE((Ratio of Oil Production from Reserve to Oil Production from >Desired Ratio of Energy Production from Reserve to Energy):AND:(Ratio of Gas Production from Reserve to Gas Production from >Desired Ratio of Energy Production from Reserve to Energy), 0 , 1 ) Units: dmnl (526) Signal to Stop Investing in Gas Exploration= IF THEN ELSE(Productivity of Investment in Gas Exploration>Threshold for Productivity of Investment in Energy Sectors , 1 , 0 ) Units: dmnl (527) Signal to Stop Investing in Gas Production= IF THEN ELSE(Productivity of Investment in Gas Production>Threshold for Productivity of Investment in Energy Sectors , 1 , 0 ) Units: dmnl (528) Signal to Stop Investing in Oil Exploration= IF THEN ELSE( Productivity of Investment in Oil Exploration>Threshold for Productivity of Investment in Energy Sectors , 1 , 0 ) Units: dmnl (529) Signal to Stop Investing in Oil Production= IF THEN ELSE( Productivity of Investment in Oil Production>Threshold for Productivity of Investment in Energy Sectors , 1 , 0 ) Units: 1 (530) Smoothing of Average Availability of Capital Goods= (Availability of Capital Goods-Average Availability of Capital Good)/Time To Average Availability Of Capital Goods Units: 1/Year (531) Smoothing of Average Availability of Consumption Goods= (Availability of Consumption Goods-Average Availability of Consumption Good )/Time To Average Availability Of Consumption Goods Units: 1/Year (532) Smoothing of Average Availability of Intermediate Goods= (Availability of Intermediate Goods-Average Availability of Investment Good )/Time To Average Availability Of Intermediate Goods Units: 1/Year (533) Smoothing of Average Desired Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector = (Desired Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector-Average Desired Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector )/Time To Average Desired Production Capacity In Capital Goods Sector Units: million R/(Year*Year) (534) Smoothing of Average Desired Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector = (Desired Production Capacity in Intermediate Goods Sector-Average Desired Production Capacity in Intermediate Good Sector )/Time To Average Desired Production Capacity In Intermediate Goods Sector Units: million R/(Year*Year) (535) Smoothing of Desired Production Capacity in Education Sector= (Desired Production Capacity in Education-Average Desired Production Capacity in Education )/Time To Average Desired Production Capacity In Education sector Units: million R/(Year*Year) (536) Smoothing of Export for Capital Goods= (Exported Capital Goods-Average Export of Capital Goods)/Time To Average Export Of Capital Goods Units: million R/(Year*Year) (537) Smoothing of Export for Consumption Goods= (Exported Consumption Goods-Average Export of Consumption Goods)/Time To Average Export Of Consumption Goods Units: million R/(Year*Year) (538) Smoothing of Export for Food= (Exported Food-Average Export of Food)/Time To Average Export Of Food Units: million R/(Year*Year) (539) Smoothing of Export for Intermediate Goods= (Exported Intermediate Goods-Average Export of Intermediate Goods)/Time To Average Export Of Intermediate Goods Units: million R/(Year*Year) (540) Smoothing of Termination Rate= (Termination Rate 3-Average Termination Rate)/Time To Average Termination Rate Units: persons/(Year*Year) (541) Smoothing of Total Desired Imports= (Total Desired Imports-Average Total Desired Imports)/Time To Average Total Desired Imports Units: million R/Year (542) Smoting of Average Desired Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector = (Desired Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector-Average Desired Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector )/Time To Average Desired Production Capacity In Consumption Goods Sector Units: million R/(Year*Year) (543) Social Demand for Education= Desired Enrollment Ratio*(School Age Children)*(Duration of Education/Duration of School Age Period ) Units: student (544) Switch for Changing Energy Import Policy= SMOOTH(STEP(1, 2008 ) , TIME STEP ) Units: dmnl (545) Switch for Changing Gas Injection Policy= SMOOTH( STEP(Policy Level for Gas Injection, 2008 ) , TIME STEP ) Units: dmnl (546) Switch for Changing Market Policy= STEP(Desired Change in Market Share, 2008) Units: dmnl (547) Switch for Changing Political Condition= IF THEN ELSE(Time>2008, 1 , 0 ) Units: dmnl (548) Switch for Policy Analysis in Investment Sector= IF THEN ELSE(Time<2008, 1 , Policy Factor for Decreasing Oil Investment Share ) Units: dmnl (549) Target Gas Market Share= 0.8+Switch for Changing Market Policy Units: dmnl (550) Technology in Agricultural Sector= INTEG ( Rate of Transfer of Technology in Agricultural Sector, 1) Units: Technology (551) Technology in Agricultural Sector of Advanced Countries= Technology In Agricultural Sector Of Advanced Countries Initial*EXP(Rate Of Technological Progress In Agriculture *(Time-1959)) Units: Technology (552) Technology In Agricultural Sector Of Advanced Countries Initial= 4 Units: Technology (553) Technology in Industrial Sector= INTEG ( Rate of Transfer of Technology in Industry, 1) Units: Technology (554) Technology in Industrial Sector of Advanced Countries= Technology In Industrial Sector Of Advanced Countries Initial*EXP(Rate Of Technological Progress In Industry *(Time-1959)) Units: Technology (555) Technology In Industrial Sector Of Advanced Countries Initial= 5.176 Units: Technology (556) Technology Index for Industry = WITH LOOKUP ( (School Years per Laborer in Industry/School Years Per Industrial Laborer Of Advanced Countries ), ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0),(0.25,0.32),(0.5,0.6),(0.75,0.82),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (557) Technology Index in Agricultural Sector = WITH LOOKUP ( (School Years per Laborer in Agricultural Sector/School Years Per Labor In Agricultural Sector Of Advanced Countries ), ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0),(0.25,0.32),(0.5,0.6),(0.75,0.82),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (558) Technology Normal in Agricultural= Technology Index in Agricultural Sector*Technology in Agricultural Sector of Advanced Countries Units: Technology (559) Technology Normal in Industry= Technology Index for Industry*Technology in Industrial Sector of Advanced Countries Units: Technology (560) Technology Normal to Technology in Agricultural Sector= Technology Normal in Agricultural/Technology in Agricultural Sector Units: dmnl (561) Technology Normal to Technology in Industry= Technology Normal in Industry/Technology in Industrial Sector Units: dmnl (562) Technology Ratio in Agricultural Sector= Technology in Agricultural Sector of Advanced Countries/Technology in Agricultural Sector Units: dmnl (563) Technology Ratio in Industrial Sector= Technology in Industrial Sector of Advanced Countries/Technology in Industrial Sector Units: dmnl (564) Termination Rate 1= Number of Students 1/(Duration of Education/3) Units: persons/Year (565) Termination Rate 2= Number of Students 2/(Duration of Education/3) Units: persons/Year (566) Termination Rate 3= Number of Students 3/(Duration of Education/3) Units: persons/Year (567) Test of Capital Good Import Policy= IF THEN ELSE(1978>=Time, 1, Test Of Capital Goods Import Policy Constant) Units: dmnl (568) Test Of Capital Goods Import Policy Constant= 1 Units: dmnl (569) Test of Consumption Goods Import Policy= IF THEN ELSE(1978>=Time, 1, Test Of Consumption Goods Import Policy Constant ) Units: dmnl (570) Test Of Consumption Goods Import Policy Constant= 1 Units: dmnl (571) Test of Educational Expansion Policy= IF THEN ELSE(1978>Time, 1, Test Of Educational Expansion Policy Constant) Units: dmnl (572) Test Of Educational Expansion Policy Constant= 1 Units: dmnl (573) Test of Food Import Policy= IF THEN ELSE(1978>=Time, 1, Test Of Food Import Policy Constant) Units: dmnl (574) Test Of Food Import Policy Constant= 1 Units: dmnl (575) Test of Intermediate Goods Import Policy= IF THEN ELSE(1978>=Time, 1, Test of Intermediate Goods Import Policy Constant ) Units: dmnl (576) Test of Intermediate Goods Import Policy Constant= 1 Units: dmnl (577) Threshold for Productivity of Investment in Energy Sectors= 10 Units: bbls/million R (578) TIME STEP = 0.05 Units: Year [0,?] The time step for the simulation. (579) Time To Adjust Capital = 20 Units: Years (580) Time To Adjust Education= 15 Units: Years (581) Time To Adjust Labor= 15 Units: Year (582) Time To Adjust Number Of Students= 0.5 Units: Year (583) Time To Average Availability Of Capital Goods= 1 Units: Year (584) Time To Average Availability Of Consumption Goods= 1 Units: Year (585) Time To Average Availability Of Intermediate Goods= 1 Units: Year (586) Time To Average Desired Production Capacity In Capital Goods Sector= 20 Units: Year (587) Time To Average Desired Production Capacity In Consumption Goods Sector = 20 Units: Year (588) Time To Average Desired Production Capacity In Education sector= 15 Units: Year (589) Time To Average Desired Production Capacity In Intermediate Goods Sector = 20 Units: Year (590) Time To Average Experience In Capital Goods Sector= 10 Units: Year (591) Time To Average Experience In Consumption Goods Sector = 5 Units: Year (592) Time To Average Experience In Intermediate Goods Sector= 10 Units: Year (593) Time To Average Export Of Capital Goods= 1 Units: Year (594) Time To Average Export Of Consumption Goods= 1 Units: Year (595) Time To Average Export Of Food= 1 Units: Year (596) Time To Average Export Of Intermediate Goods= 1 Units: Year (597) Time To Average Termination Rate= 0.25 Units: Year (598) Time To Average Total Desired Imports = 1 Units: Year (599) Time to Decrease Investment Security= 1 Units: Year (600) Time to Establish Average Energy Revenues= 5 Units: Year (601) Time to Establish Desired Energy Production= 1 Units: Year (602) Time to Increase Investment Security= 5 Units: Year (603) Time To Spent Accumulated Income = 1 Units: Year (604) Total Capital Goods= Output of Capital Goods Sector+Imported Capital Goods-Exported Capital Goods Units: million R/Year (605) Total Consumption Goods= Output of Consumption Goods Sector+Imported Consumption Goods-Exported Consumption Goods Units: million R/Year (606) Total Desired Imports= Desired Import of Food+Desired Import of Consumption Goods+Desired Import of Intermediate Goods +Desired Import of Capital Goods Units: million R/Year (607) Total Energy Demand= Total Gas Demand+Total Oil Demand Units: million bbls/Year (608) Total Energy Supply= Oil Production Rate+Gas Production Rate+Energy Import-Gas Injection Units: million bbls/Year (609) Total Exports= Energy Export Value+Non Oil Exports Units: million R/Year (610) Total Food= Food Output+Imported Food-Exported Food Units: million R/Year (611) Total Gas Demand= Domestic Gas Demand+For Export Gas Demand Units: million bbls/Year (612) Total Gas Recoverable Resource Remaining= ((Gas Identified Resource Remaining+Cumulative Gas Production)*Fraction Recoverable from Technology )-Cumulative Gas Production Units: million bbls (613) Total Import= (Imported Food+Imported Intermediate Goods+Imported Consumption Goods+Imported Capital Goods +Energy Import Value)*Fraction of Import policy Units: million R/Year (614) Total Intermediate Goods= Output of Intermediate Goods Sector+Imported Intermediate Goods-Exported Intermediate Goods Units: million R/Year (615) Total Oil Demand= Domestic Oil Demand+For Export Oil Demand Units: million bbls/Year (616) Total Oil Recoverable Resource Remaining= ((Oil Identified Resource Remaining+Cumulative Oil Production)*Recovery Factor )-Cumulative Oil Production Units: million bbls (617) Unit Cost of Gas Exploration= 1/MAX(Productivity of Investment in Gas Exploration, Threshold for Productivity of Investment in Energy Sectors ) Units: million R/bbls (618) Unit Cost of Gas Production= 1/MAX( Productivity of Investment in Gas Production , Threshold for Productivity of Investment in Energy Sectors ) Units: million R/bbls (619) Unit Cost of Oil Exploration= 1/MAX(Productivity of Investment in Oil Exploration, Threshold for Productivity of Investment in Energy Sectors ) Units: million R/bbls (620) Unit Cost of Oil Production= 1/MAX( Productivity of Investment in Oil Production , Threshold for Productivity of Investment in Energy Sectors ) Units: million R/bbls (621) Urban Population Ratio= INTEG ( Change in Urban Population Ratio, 0.26) Units: dmnl (622) Utility of Capital Ratio in Agriculture= Marginal Utility of Capital in Agricultural Sector/Average Marginal Utility of Capital Units: dmnl (623) Utility of Capital Ratio in Industry= Marginal Utility of Capital in Industrial Sector/Average Marginal Utility of Capital Units: dmnl (624) Utility of Education Ratio in Agriculture= Marginal Utility of Education in Agricultural Sector/Averge Marginal Utility of Education Units: dmnl (625) Utility of Education Ratio in Industry= Marginal Utility of Education in Industrial Sector/Averge Marginal Utility of Education Units: dmnl (626) Utility of Labor Ratio in Agriculture= Marginal Utility of Labor in Agricultural Sector/Average Marginal Utility of Labor Units: dmnl (627) Utility of Labor Ratio in Industry= Marginal Utility of Labor in Idustrial Sector/Average Marginal Utility of Labor Units: dmnl (628) Utilization Factor in Capital Goods Sector= Utilization Factor in Capital Goods Sector from Demand*Utilization Factor in Capital Goods Sector From Intermediate Goods Availability Units: dmnl (629) Utilization Factor in Capital Goods Sector from Demand = WITH LOOKUP ( Average Availability of Capital Good, ([(0.75,0)-(2,2)],(0.75,1),(1,1),(1.25,0.85),(1.5,0.7),(1.75,0.63),(2,0.6 ) )) Units: dmnl (630) Utilization Factor in Capital Goods Sector From Intermediate Goods Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Availability of Intermediate Goods, ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0),(0.25,0.15),(0.5,0.4),(0.75,0.8),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (631) Utilization Factor in Consumption Goods Sector= Utilization Factor in Consumption Goods Sector from Demand*Utilization Factor in Consumption Goods Sector From Intermediate Goods Availability Units: dmnl (632) Utilization Factor in Consumption Goods Sector from Demand = WITH LOOKUP ( Average Availability of Consumption Good, ([(0.75,0)-(2,2)],(0.75,1),(1,1),(1.25,0.85),(1.5,0.72),(1.75,0.63),(2,0.6 ) )) Units: dmnl (633) Utilization Factor in Consumption Goods Sector From Intermediate Goods Availability = WITH LOOKUP ( Availability of Intermediate Goods, ([(0,0)-(1,2)],(0,0),(0.25,0.15),(0.5,0.5),(0.75,0.85),(1,1) )) Units: dmnl (634) Utilization Factor in Intermediate Goods Sector from Demand = WITH LOOKUP ( Average Availability of Investment Good, ([(0.75,0)-(2,2)],(0.75,1),(1,1),(1.25,0.85),(1.5,0.7),(1.75,0.63),(2,0.6 ) )) Units: dmnl (635) Value Added in Capital Goods Sector= Production Capacity in Capital Goods Sector*Utilization Factor in Capital Goods Sector Units: million R/Year (636) Value Added in Consumption Goods Sector= Production Capacity in Consumption Goods Sector*Utilization Factor in Consumption Goods Sector Units: million R/Year (637) War Destruction Rate= 0.05 Units: 1/Year (638) War Effect Delay= 2 Units: Year (639) War Multiplier for Oil Production= 0.5 Units: dmnl (01) Brent Price Adjustment time= 0.5 Units: Year (02) Brent Price Level= INTEG ( Change on Brent Price, 108) Units: Dollar/Barrel (03) Change on Brent Price= Brent Price Level*(Effect of Inventory Coverage on Brent Price-1)/Brent Price Adjustment time Units: Dollar/(Barrel*Year) (04) China Demand= China Initial Demand*Effect of GDP Growth on China Demand*Effect of Brent Price on China Demand *China Demand Factor Units: Barrel/Year (05) China Demand Factor= 1 Units: Dmnl (06) China GDP Growth= 7.7 Units: Dmnl (07) China Initial Demand= 3.92594e+09 Units: Barrel/Year (08) Consumption= "Oil Supply-Demand Disbalance"/Demand Adjustment Time+Total Demand Units: Barrel/Year (09) Demand Adjustment Time= 1 Units: Year (10) Effect of Brent Price on China Demand= Table of Effect of Brent Price on China Demand(Brent Price Level) Units: Dmnl (11) Effect of Brent Price on ROW Demand= Table of Effect of Brent Price on ROW Demand(Brent Price Level) Units: Dmnl (12) Effect of Brent Price on US Conventional Oil Production= IF THEN ELSE(Brent Price Level/US Conventional Oil Breakeven Price<1, 0 , Table of Effect of Brent Price on US Conventional Oil Production(Brent Price Level /US Conventional Oil Breakeven Price) ) Units: Dmnl (13) Effect of Brent Price on US Unconventional Oil Production= IF THEN ELSE(Brent Price Level/US Unconventional Oil Breakeven Price<1, 0 , Table of Effect of Brent Price on US Unconventional Oil Production(Brent Price Level /US Unconventional Oil Breakeven Price) ) Units: Dmnl (14) Effect of GDP Growth on China Demand= Table of Effect of GDP Growth on China Demand(China GDP Growth) Units: Dmnl (15) Effect of Inventory Coverage on Brent Price= Table of Effect of Inventory Coverage on Brent Price(Inventory Coverage) Units: Dmnl (16) FINAL TIME = 2100 Units: Year The final time for the simulation. (17) INITIAL TIME = 2013 Units: Year The initial time for the simulation. (18) Initial US Conventional Oil Production Rate= 1.825e+09 Units: Barrel/Year (19) Initial US Unconventional Oil Production= 1.82609e+09 Units: Barrel/Year (20) Inventory Coverage= ((ROW Production Rate+OPEC Production Rate+"Non-OPEC Oil Production Rate" )/Consumption)-1 Units: Year (21) "Non-OPEC Oil Production Rate"= "Table of Effect of Brent of Price on Non-OPEC Production Rate"(Brent Price Level )*"Non-OPEC Initial Production Rate"*"Non-OPEC Production Factor" Units: Barrel/Year (22) Effect of GDP Growth on ROW Demand= Table of Effect of GDP Growth on ROW Demand(ROW GDP Growth) Units: Dmnl (23) initial stock point for oil supply= 0 Units: Barrel (24) Initial US Oil Consumption Rate= 6.89375e+09 Units: Barrel/Year (25) "Non-OPEC Initial Production Rate"= 9.51153e+09 Units: Barrel/Year (26) "Non-OPEC Production Factor"= 1 Units: Dmnl (27) "Oil Supply-Demand Disbalance"= INTEG ( "Non-OPEC Oil Production Rate"+OPEC Production Rate+ROW Production Rate-Consumption , initial stock point for oil supply) Units: **undefined** (28) OPEC Initial Production Rate= 1.34426e+10 Units: Barrel/Year (29) OPEC Production Factor= 1 Units: Dmnl (30) OPEC Production Rate= Tabble of Effect of Brent Price on OPEC Production(Brent Price Level)*OPEC Initial Production Rate *OPEC Production Factor Units: Barrel/Year (31) ROW Demand= ROW Initial Demand*Effect of Brent Price on ROW Demand*Effect of GDP Growth on ROW Demand *ROW Demand Factor Units: Barrel/Year (32) ROW Demand Factor= 1 Units: Dmnl (33) ROW GDP Growth= 2 Units: Dmnl (34) ROW Initial Demand= 57111*365*1000 Units: Barrel/Year (35) ROW Initial Production Rate= 13863*365*1000 Units: Barrel/Year (36) ROW Production Factor= 1 Units: Dmnl (37) ROW Production Rate= Table of Effect of Brent Price on ROW Production Rate(Brent Price Level)* ROW Initial Production Rate*ROW Production Factor Units: Barrel/Year (38) SAVEPER = TIME STEP Units: Year [0,?] The frequency with which output is stored. (39) Tabble of Effect of Brent Price on OPEC Production( [(10,0)-(250,1.1)],(10,0.1),(20,0.43),(30,0.7),(50,0.85),(60,0.92),(80,0.95 ),(108,1),(120,1.03),(130,1.05),(150,1.08),(250,1.1)) Units: Dmnl (40) "Table of Effect of Brent of Price on Non-OPEC Production Rate"( [(10,0)-(250,1.01)],(10,0.2),(20,0.6),(30,0.93),(50,0.97),(60,0.98),(80,0.99 ),(108,1),(120,1.005),(130,1.01),(150,1.01),(250,1.01)) Units: Dmnl (41) Table of Effect of Brent Price on China Demand( [(20,0.49)-(200,3.64)],(20,3.64),(40,2.02),(60,1.48),(80,1.21),(90,1.12), (108,1),(120,0.94),(140,0.82),(160,0.71),(180,0.6),(200,0.49)) Units: Dmnl (42) Table of Effect of Brent Price on ROW Demand( [(20,0.49)-(200,3.64)],(20,3.64),(40,2.02),(60,1.48),(80,1.21),(90,1.12), (108,1),(120,0.94),(140,0.82),(160,0.71),(180,0.6),(200,0.49)) Units: Dmnl (43) Table of Effect of Brent Price on ROW Production Rate( [(10,0.2)-(250,1.05)],(10,0.2),(20,0.5),(30,0.77),(50,0.87),(60,0.93),(80 ,0.98),(108,1),(120,1.01),(130,1.02),(150,1.03),(250,1.05)) Units: Dmnl (44) Table of Effect of Brent Price on US Conventional Oil Production( [(1,0.5)-(10,4.5)],(1,0.5),(1.1,0.55),(1.2,0.6),(1.3,0.7),(1.5,0.8),(1.9, 0.95),(2.16,1),(3,1.3),(5,2),(8,3.5),(10,4.5)) Units: Dmnl (45) Table of Effect of Brent Price on US Unconventional Oil Production( [(1,0)-(10,6)],(1,0.3),(1.1,0.4),(1.2,0.5),(1.3,0.6),(1.5,0.75),(1.9,0.95 ),(2.16,1),(3,1.3),(5,2.5),(8,4.5),(10,6)) Units: Dmnl (46) Table of Effect of GDP Growth on China Demand( [(0,0)-(20,2.6)],(0,0),(1,0.13),(2,0.26),(3,0.39),(4,0.52),(5,0.65),(6,0.78 ),(7.7,1),(8,1.04),(10,1.3),(20,2.6)) Units: Dmnl (47) Table of Effect of GDP Growth on ROW Demand( [(0,0)-(10,5)],(0,0),(0.1,0.05),(0.2,0.1),(0.5,0.25),(0.8,0.4),(1,0.5),(1.5 ,0.78),(2,1),(4,2),(6,3),(10,5)) Units: Dmnl (48) Table of Effect of Inventory Coverage on Brent Price( [(-50,0)-(50,30)],(-50,30),(-35.336,25.8571),(-23.3198,21.1429),(-14.1548 ,15.1429),(-10.2851,11),(-6.41548,7.71428),(-2.74949,3.71428),(-1,1.8),(0, 1),(1,0.2),(5,0.15),(10,0.1),(15,0.05),(20,0.01),(50,0)) Units: Dmnl (49) TIME STEP = 1 Units: Year [0,?] The time step for the simulation. (50) Total Demand= (US Demand+China Demand+ROW Demand) Units: Barrel/Year (51) Total Production Rate= "Non-OPEC Oil Production Rate"+OPEC Production Rate+ROW Production Rate Units: Barrel/Year (52) US Conventional Oil Breakeven Price= 50 Units: Dollar/Barrel (53) US Conventional Oil Production Rate= Initial US Conventional Oil Production Rate*Effect of Brent Price on US Conventional Oil Production *US Conventional Production Factor Units: Barrel/Year (54) US Conventional Production Factor= 1 Units: Dmnl (55) US Demand= IF THEN ELSE(US Unconventional Oil Profuction rate+US Conventional Oil Production Rate -US Oil consumption Rate<0, ABS(US Unconventional Oil Profuction rate+US Conventional Oil Production Rate -US Oil consumption Rate) , 0 ) Units: Barrel/Year (56) US Oil Consumption Factor= 1 Units: Dmnl (57) US Oil consumption Rate= US Oil Consumption Factor*Initial US Oil Consumption Rate Units: Barrel/Year (58) US Oil Inventory= INTEG ( US Conventional Oil Production Rate+US Unconventional Oil Profuction rate -US Oil consumption Rate, 0) Units: Barrel (59) US Unconventional Oil Breakeven Price= 50 Units: Dollar/Barrel (60) US Unconventional Oil Profuction rate= Initial US Unconventional Oil Production*Effect of Brent Price on US Unconventional Oil Production *US Unconventional Production Factor Units: Barrel/Year (61) US Unconventional Production Factor= 1 Units: Dmnl