Abstract for: Unraveling the Complexity of Volcanic Risk: A Participatory Systems Approach to Mt. Taranaki's Socio-Economic System

Volcanic eruptions are considered one of the most damaging, dangerous, and disruptive natural hazards known to humans. Despite the known hazardous potential of such environments, profits often outweigh fear, leading to an increased concentration of human settlements around volcanoes. Besides the immediate direct hazards, volcanic eruptions frequently trigger indirect impacts stemming from complex and intertwined natural, human, and physical networks and their dynamics. Recent studies indicate that Mt. Taranaki is likely to generate national-scale consequences for New Zealand in the near future, with volcanic activity potentially lasting for years, decades, or even centuries. Recognizing the limitations of linear approaches, this ongoing study adopts a participatory Systems Thinking, and System Dynamics methodology. Through mediated modeling workshops, stakeholders representing various sectors and industries collaboratively construct a model of the Taranaki socio-economic system based on their sector-specific viewpoints. The research embraces a systemic risk perspective, recognizing the interconnectedness, interdependence, and interrelatedness of various factors that contribute to the overall risk landscape. The study seeks to understand how various sectors and stakeholders affected by the disruption may navigate the long-term recovery phase under ongoing exposure to volcanic activity.