Abstract for: A Determination Framework for Causal Inference

The field of system dynamics operates in causality. However, opaqueness surrounding the colloquial definition of “causal” can make the seemingly simple phrase “correlation does not imply causation” hard to interpret and a point of contention. How is system Dynamics methodology positioned relative to other methods? In general, when is causal inference justified, and what is the contribution of a correlation if it is not allowing causal inference? We examine the problem through measurement theory and experimental design and offer a framework for determining when causal inference is justified. “The epistemology of causation, and of the scientific method more generally, is at present in a productive state of near chaos” (Cook and Campbell, 1979).