Abstract for: Maintaining and Improving Habitability in the Pacific

Islands and atolls in the Pacific face heightened climate risks due to low elevations and limited resources. Kiribati, a small island state in the Pacific, is increasingly threatened by water scarcity and tidal flooding issues, coupled with demographic challenges related to a rapidly growing population. We use participatory system dynamics approaches to understand the complex interactions between climate change and long-term habitability. Stakeholder consultations and a group workshop inform a stock and flow model, developed to understand the dynamics between climate change, land, water, and population pressures. Currently, the model incorporates feedback related to sea level rise’s affect on land loss and populations, including outcomes of various emissions pathways. Example scenarios test policy interventions’ ability to mitigate future habitability challenges including through multistory buildings, island development, and innovative climate adaptations. Preliminary results find that without interventions, sea level rise leads to decreases land area. Floating infrastructure shows potential for mitigating land loss while the development of more remote islands in Kiribati may present an opportunity for reducing population pressures in the capital. Future work for this model include the incorporation of additional feedback loops and collaboration with government partners to develop and test scenarios based on national adaptation goals.