Abstract for: Pressure, Hold, and Release: Understanding Famine Dynamics and System Collapse in Somalia

The evolution of famines occurs when pressure, a combination of disruptive factors causing vulnerability to impacted communities, is sustained by a hold, a set factors that keep the system in place, resulting in self-reinforcing dynamics tipping the famine systems to high malnutrition and mortality rates before rebalancing. In this paper, we describe the evolution of the famine from formation to collapse, using Somalia famines 2011-2012 as a case study. The study comprises two stages: participatory qualitative systems mapping to identify pressure, holds, and dynamics in the Somalia famines, and quantitative system dynamics modeling using historical data or expert judgment. Through workshops with famine experts, a causal loop diagram of the Somalia case (2011-2012) was developed, illustrating pressure and hold variables. We will identify leverage points leading to famine system collapse, along with system archetypes of humanitarian interventions during 2011-2012. Scenarios and hypothesis will be identified for testing during phase 2 to evaluate the impact of interventions on famine outcomes. Models of famines can inform decision-making, offering insights into causes, impacts, and solutions. System dynamics modeling makes elements legible, identifies leverage points for collapsing self-reinforcing systems, informs early warning systems, and aids in devising effective preventive measures.