Abstract for: System dynamics modelling to assess transport demand and economic viability of autonomous shuttles for rural public transport

Public transport provision in rural areas is challenging due to low density of demand that makes conventional public transport or shared services as well as investments in infrastructure less economically justifiable. Fully automated public transport solutions are being tested as a lower cost solution to cover the last mile connecting rural areas to regional public transport lines. This paper presents the development of a model the impacts of the This paper presents the development of a system dynamics simulation model to assess the transport demand impacts and economic viability for the introduction of autonomous shuttles in rural areas for a pilot case study in Austria. Based on a qualitative model (Causal Loop diagram) of the relationships and feedback structures influencing modal choices and impacts of the case study application were identified and operationalised in a quantitative stock-flow simulation model. Simulation results from model testing demonstrate the importance of key variables such as weighting times and the perceived utility of the services. Simulation runs also demonstrate that the full cost of operation of the shuttle will not be covered by ticket revenues, and public support is needed to provide such an integrated regional transport offer as an alternative to the car.