Abstract for: A dynamic model of almond productivity loss due to Xylella fastidiosa

The almond tree (Prunus dulcis) is a widely cultivated species in the Mediterranean basin and is of significant economic value to the region. Since 2016, the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa has been spreading and infecting crops in the Balearic Islands and peninsular Spain. The primary vectors of Xylella in the Spanish Mediterranean are the xylem-feeding spittlebugs Philaenus spumarius and Neophilaenus campestris. Despite the implementation of various management strategies, the situation has reached a critical point in certain areas. This study presents a dynamic model that considers the entire Xylella pathosystem, including bacteria, host plants and insect vectors. The model is calibrated using field data from the province of Alicante in south-eastern Spain, as well as available literature and parameter estimates where data were not available. The model output reproduces the decreasing population trend of productive trees affected by Xylella, including the latency between infection and symptom appearance, and allows us to estimate the economic losses resulting from the infection of almond crops by the bacteria.