Abstract for: Growth and impending decline in groundwater dependent agriculture: simulation modeling to inform sustainability policies

Lack of available surface water, especially in arid or semi-arid regions, render groundwater a vital resource for the continuity of agriculture. Konya Closed Basin is a semi-arid watershed located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. In recent years, it has been brought to both local and national agenda, with its water scarcity and groundwater stress. In this research, we adopt system dynamics approach for exploring the drivers of unsustainable groundwater use and to build a shared understanding on future sustainable pathways in Çumra, an administrative district within Konya Closed Basin. In parallel to field work and workshops, we built a dynamic simulation model, and tested multiple environmental scenarios and policies suggested by the stakeholders, such as inter basin water transfer, crop rotation, crop repricing, well regulation, and groundwater extraction caps. The model simulates the 2004-2044 period on annual bases. Based on the scenario and policy analyses performed in this research, the declining trend in the groundwater table in Çumra is not irreversible; when certain sets of policies are implemented, groundwater can be sustained while maintaining the desired agricultural production and farmer profits.