Abstract for: How Participatory and Computer Modeling Enhances Climate Resilience Policy Design in Data-Scarce Social-Ecological Systems

Climate resilience policy design in data-scarce environments is complex and challenging. This research explores how participatory modeling can enhance policy-making by integrating local knowledge and system dynamics (SD). We developed a computer model (Ikel CliRes) using community based SD modeling to overcome the challenges of policy design in a data scarce environment. Focusing on the Ikel watershed in the Republic of Moldova as a case study we engaged stakeholders to identify key vulnerabilities, such as crop yield decline, groundwater depletion, and loss of bioproductive land. By means of the Ikel CliRes simulation model, we were able to test the effectiveness of various resilience-building policies under several climate scenarios. The results show that the most successful strategy involves a combination of extensive reforestation, adoption of water-efficient crops, improved soil conservation, and sustainable agricultural practices, tailored to local demographic conditions. These policies, reinforced by stakeholder engagement, address the specific needs of the community while compensating for data scarcity. The research demonstrates the pivotal role of participatory modeling in guiding policy decisions, validating models, and building stakeholder confidence in data-scarce social-ecological systems (SES).