Abstract for: Dynamic Effects of COVID-19 on HPV Vaccination Rates Among Adolescent Boys in New York State

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination rates among adolescents in New York State further exacerbating the low rates of HPV vaccine uptake, primarily due to disruption in healthcare and increased distrust in vaccines. This decline in HPV vaccinations has raised concerns in public health regarding its potential long-term effects, particularly on the incidence of HPV-related cancers. In this work-in-progress, we used a previously developed System Dynamic (SD) model of HPV vaccine uptake in adolescent boys ages 13-17 in New York State to study the effects of COVID-19 on HPV vaccination rates. This model integrates the Health Belief Model approach, incorporating factors such as parental vaccine acceptability and healthcare provider recommendations, crucial for enhancing HPV vaccine uptake. The model is calibrated using NYS data on HPV vaccinations among adolescent boys pre-pandemic. We compare model outputs to post-pandemic historical data to validate model structure and behavior. By integrating a COVID-19 component to the updated model, we can simulate scenarios on disruption of routine vaccinations in NYS as well as vaccine hesitancy. This approach allows up to assess various interventions aimed at increasing HPV vaccination rates and to evaluate the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on vaccination trends.